Since the water temperatures are above normal, we can expect more tropical storms in the weeks ahead
The Atlantic is very quiet due to dust from Africa spreading west
Thursday, June 30, 2011
First Tropical System of 2011
Tropical Storm Arlene is still hanging around in the western Gulf of Mexico drifting into central Mexico.
Forecast continues to drive this west over the next several days
The National Hurricane Center concurs
Since the water temperatures are above normal, we can expect more tropical storms in the weeks ahead
The Atlantic is very quiet due to dust from Africa spreading west
Movement on any tropical waves will be westward. Unless a storm develops in the Gulf, the Caribbean storms should stay away from the US
We are still looking at an above normal year of tropical storms. If you are vacationing along the east coast or Florida, your chances of being affected by a tropical storm/Hurricane this year is increasing.
Since the water temperatures are above normal, we can expect more tropical storms in the weeks ahead
The Atlantic is very quiet due to dust from Africa spreading west
Wednesday, June 29, 2011
Tuesday, June 21, 2011
Is Forecasting the Weather Art or Science?
In this technological world that we live in where the resources for weather related information are readily available for ANYONE in seconds, it still surprises me how many of us still hang onto the belief that simply because we have "super-fast computers", weather forecasting should be a science that is an already mastered discipline. In the minds of most, because of advancements in technology, forecasting should be an old science relic that should have been perfected by now.
I am a firm believer that weather foreacsting is made up of two parts: Science and Art. The science encompasses objective observation and analysis. The art deals with formulating your forecast so it best fits everyones "perception" of what is happening-- a poor-man's exercise in psycho-analysis. More on that in a moment.
First the science:
Contrary to what many believe, forecasting accuracy is MUCH BETTER than it was 10 or 15 years ago. This is in part to several factors: The first is the development and implementation of satellite data. The second is faster computers. The third is more advanced weather simulations (called computer models)
Satellites monitor each and every square inch of the planet. Soil moisture, ground temperature, atmospheric temperatures, infrared radiation, wind profiles, pollution, dust, pressure, ice coverage...you name it. All of this data is compiled and shuttled onto websites each second of each day. The first decade of the 2000s will be remembered as the time when volumes of satellite data became available on the internet to most everyone. Want to analyze ocean surface temperatures? You can do it. Want the dataset for ozone over Antarctica? Its right there! Our understanding of the oceans and atmosphere is so much greater with this library of satellite data so readily available.
Computers are much faster and getting smaller each year. A personal computer from 2006 is grossly outdated. In 2015, the best and faster computer in 2011 will be a turtle in comparison. Faster computers means faster and more detailed computer simulations of thunderstorms, hurricanes, ocean currents and other patterns. Combine the faster computers with more detailed data and you get a much better simulation on what the specific weather will be for a certain area.
That said, simulations have and will ALWAYS have limitations. First, simulations by their very nature are not exact answers. They are approximations. The complex math that describes the atmosphere is one big approximation. Factor these inexact simulations created by humans with super-fast computers, also made by humans and you get two things: MUCH better forecasts that still have some degree of error.
Now the art (psychology):
Weather accuracy is highly subjective. If you mention on the air that "90% of the area will get thunderstorms today" and 90% of the area gets rain and storms, your accuracy is pretty darn good. Yet for the 10% who didn't get any rain, you are the worst forecaster in history!
Your "weather reality" is what is over your head at any given time. Much of the public as a whole views the weather around them with a biased lens. Substitute this "weather reality" with politics, the economy, religion, crime, your friends, it doesn't matter. We are all biased to some extent. That's what makes us human. Its our built in selective perception of the weather and events around us that gives us perspective. The art of forecasting is formulating your words based on how people will "perceive" what is going to happen.
20 years ago, the only sources of weather were: television, radio, newspaper and word of mouth. Now, add real-time Internet and smart phone updates, 24 hour cable. Its and endless bombardment of weather both beautiful and destructive. We are all conditioned partly with this overflow of information to gauge the weather events as something new. How many times have we heard "I've never seen anything like this before!" after a weather event? The most recent weather is overemphasized because its fresh in our minds. This shapes our viewpoint on weather a few days to a few weeks in the future.
Most outside of the field of weather find it very difficult to grasp the fact that the weather is one big approximation. Weather should be exact; we all want a forecast that fits a nice and neat one-size-fits-all package. I'd like to say that I make a forecast whether short or long term with a cold, rational eye rather than my biased, emotional side. But I don't. I take into account how the general public will react to my EVERY word knowing that most selectively perceive the weather to fit their "sphere of reality". I learned that quickly years ago. For all of the simulations, super-computers, highly detailed satellite data, it doesn't matter how exact your forecast is or what scientific reasoning you used in coming to your conclusion, people will ignore the facts and the data that disagree with their perceptions and will "rationalize" what they want and react accordingly. More often than not, the reactions are negative. Worse still, its accumulative. The more we selectively perceive the weather to fit our negative connotation, the more negative our reaction and the more rigid our bias becomes. Its a vicious circle that feeds on itself.
This is called the Disconfirmation Bias. Its the tendency to accept supportive evidence of a belief uncritically, but to discount evidence that challenges that belief.
Here is an example: Go back to last winter. The first big snowstorm forecast calls for "4-8 inches" for the following day. In your backyard, you get 3 inches yet 80% of the area received 6 inches. You say "what happened to the 4-8 inches?" Second snowstorm, the forecast calls for "6 to 10 inches". You get 6 inches. The majority of the area received 9 inches. You say "what happened to the "6 to 10 inches?". By the third snowstorm, you are already frustrated by the "lack of accuracy" so you are primed to think negatively. The forecast calls for 5 to 10 inches. You get 5 inches and you say "what happened to the other 5 inches?"
The forecast was accurate given the range in the snowfall prediction. Since you were preconditioned to believe the forecast would be way off because of your established bias, no amount of evidence in the world will break you of that bias!
Weather is an old science. Weather forecasting is a field that continues to grow. But the heart of a forecast lies in molding the science to fit the psychology. Human nature is tough and stubborn. I'll try to be better sculptor.
I am a firm believer that weather foreacsting is made up of two parts: Science and Art. The science encompasses objective observation and analysis. The art deals with formulating your forecast so it best fits everyones "perception" of what is happening-- a poor-man's exercise in psycho-analysis. More on that in a moment.
First the science:
Contrary to what many believe, forecasting accuracy is MUCH BETTER than it was 10 or 15 years ago. This is in part to several factors: The first is the development and implementation of satellite data. The second is faster computers. The third is more advanced weather simulations (called computer models)
Computers are much faster and getting smaller each year. A personal computer from 2006 is grossly outdated. In 2015, the best and faster computer in 2011 will be a turtle in comparison. Faster computers means faster and more detailed computer simulations of thunderstorms, hurricanes, ocean currents and other patterns. Combine the faster computers with more detailed data and you get a much better simulation on what the specific weather will be for a certain area.
That said, simulations have and will ALWAYS have limitations. First, simulations by their very nature are not exact answers. They are approximations. The complex math that describes the atmosphere is one big approximation. Factor these inexact simulations created by humans with super-fast computers, also made by humans and you get two things: MUCH better forecasts that still have some degree of error.
Now the art (psychology):
Weather accuracy is highly subjective. If you mention on the air that "90% of the area will get thunderstorms today" and 90% of the area gets rain and storms, your accuracy is pretty darn good. Yet for the 10% who didn't get any rain, you are the worst forecaster in history!
Your "weather reality" is what is over your head at any given time. Much of the public as a whole views the weather around them with a biased lens. Substitute this "weather reality" with politics, the economy, religion, crime, your friends, it doesn't matter. We are all biased to some extent. That's what makes us human. Its our built in selective perception of the weather and events around us that gives us perspective. The art of forecasting is formulating your words based on how people will "perceive" what is going to happen.
20 years ago, the only sources of weather were: television, radio, newspaper and word of mouth. Now, add real-time Internet and smart phone updates, 24 hour cable. Its and endless bombardment of weather both beautiful and destructive. We are all conditioned partly with this overflow of information to gauge the weather events as something new. How many times have we heard "I've never seen anything like this before!" after a weather event? The most recent weather is overemphasized because its fresh in our minds. This shapes our viewpoint on weather a few days to a few weeks in the future.
Most outside of the field of weather find it very difficult to grasp the fact that the weather is one big approximation. Weather should be exact; we all want a forecast that fits a nice and neat one-size-fits-all package. I'd like to say that I make a forecast whether short or long term with a cold, rational eye rather than my biased, emotional side. But I don't. I take into account how the general public will react to my EVERY word knowing that most selectively perceive the weather to fit their "sphere of reality". I learned that quickly years ago. For all of the simulations, super-computers, highly detailed satellite data, it doesn't matter how exact your forecast is or what scientific reasoning you used in coming to your conclusion, people will ignore the facts and the data that disagree with their perceptions and will "rationalize" what they want and react accordingly. More often than not, the reactions are negative. Worse still, its accumulative. The more we selectively perceive the weather to fit our negative connotation, the more negative our reaction and the more rigid our bias becomes. Its a vicious circle that feeds on itself.
This is called the Disconfirmation Bias. Its the tendency to accept supportive evidence of a belief uncritically, but to discount evidence that challenges that belief.
Here is an example: Go back to last winter. The first big snowstorm forecast calls for "4-8 inches" for the following day. In your backyard, you get 3 inches yet 80% of the area received 6 inches. You say "what happened to the 4-8 inches?" Second snowstorm, the forecast calls for "6 to 10 inches". You get 6 inches. The majority of the area received 9 inches. You say "what happened to the "6 to 10 inches?". By the third snowstorm, you are already frustrated by the "lack of accuracy" so you are primed to think negatively. The forecast calls for 5 to 10 inches. You get 5 inches and you say "what happened to the other 5 inches?"
The forecast was accurate given the range in the snowfall prediction. Since you were preconditioned to believe the forecast would be way off because of your established bias, no amount of evidence in the world will break you of that bias!
Weather is an old science. Weather forecasting is a field that continues to grow. But the heart of a forecast lies in molding the science to fit the psychology. Human nature is tough and stubborn. I'll try to be better sculptor.
Tuesday, June 14, 2011
Are Long Stretches of 70 Degree Highs in June Unusual?
Its the middle of June and Spring is here...after a week of heat and humidity...after three days in the 90s...now a decent stretch of temps in the 70s when the highs should be rising. A flip-flop to what typically happens this time of year. Is this drop into the 70s all that unusual?
This first graph shows the years with 5 straight days with temps in the 70s. The longer the stretch, the longer the "blue line"
8 of the last 13 years we had at least one stretch of 5 straight days with temps in the 70s after June 12th.
The red bars are the consecutive days above 80 degrees that followed each 70 degree stretch.
Notice in 2008 and 2004, we had a second stretch of 70 degree days. How about in 2003? A stretch that lasted 10 days!
The year 2000 and 2007 were the only years where 70 degree stretches were under 3 days.
The bottom line is that it is perfectly normal to have long stretches of temps in the 70s in mid to late June. Coming off of a La Nina spring (now neutral) with global temps still cooler than this time last year coupled with soil moisture in the middle of the country well-above normal, the chances of having long stretches of 85 to 90 degree heat here in northeastern Ohio heading into July and August seem very small.
This first graph shows the years with 5 straight days with temps in the 70s. The longer the stretch, the longer the "blue line"
8 of the last 13 years we had at least one stretch of 5 straight days with temps in the 70s after June 12th.
The red bars are the consecutive days above 80 degrees that followed each 70 degree stretch.
Notice in 2008 and 2004, we had a second stretch of 70 degree days. How about in 2003? A stretch that lasted 10 days!
The year 2000 and 2007 were the only years where 70 degree stretches were under 3 days.
The bottom line is that it is perfectly normal to have long stretches of temps in the 70s in mid to late June. Coming off of a La Nina spring (now neutral) with global temps still cooler than this time last year coupled with soil moisture in the middle of the country well-above normal, the chances of having long stretches of 85 to 90 degree heat here in northeastern Ohio heading into July and August seem very small.
Wednesday, June 08, 2011
Still sticking to my "7 days above 90" prediction
Many people have come up to me and said, "So. What happened to that forecast of '7 days at 90 or better this summer' you predicted"?
My answer, "The summer is still young." And yes, I'm still sticking to my initial prediction. Cooler air is coming...
So far as of June 8th, we've had 3 days at 90 or better. Alot of this heat is due to two main factors: Decreased soil moisture which reduces the amount of evaporation (which is a cooling process) and high pressure aloft which steers warmth north.
Look at the flow last month (May)
Now compared it to the last two weeks. Ridging aloft with steering winds out of the south
Now the soil moisture in May...red indicates high soil moisture
Now for June through the 5th: Notice the reds are replaced with yellow shades indicating drying across the eastern 1/2 of the US.
The combination of all of the extended forecasts in this next animation shows no significant "southerly flow" like the second map on the page. It illustrates a west to east flow with periods slight warmth with NO BIG HOT PERIODS at least through the 22nd of June. This also means more quick-moving fronts with better chances of rain/storms. If it doesn't animate, click on THIS LINK
Even NEW extended models which take into account the interaction between the ocean cycles and general atmospheric conditions around the earth show a "cooler than normal" pattern for July and August. Normal high in July is 82. So this would predict a better chance at upper 70s versus upper 80s.
My answer, "The summer is still young." And yes, I'm still sticking to my initial prediction. Cooler air is coming...
So far as of June 8th, we've had 3 days at 90 or better. Alot of this heat is due to two main factors: Decreased soil moisture which reduces the amount of evaporation (which is a cooling process) and high pressure aloft which steers warmth north.
Look at the flow last month (May)
Even NEW extended models which take into account the interaction between the ocean cycles and general atmospheric conditions around the earth show a "cooler than normal" pattern for July and August. Normal high in July is 82. So this would predict a better chance at upper 70s versus upper 80s.
Wednesday, June 01, 2011
A dry June and the start of hurricane season
Just when out weather is starting to dry out after more than 14 inches or rain since April 1st, the start of hurricane season is now taking center stage with the talk of an above year for tropical storms and hurricanes.
Why the increase this year?
Let look at the total amount of available moisture in the atmosphere in the tropics courtesy of Dr. Jeff Masters at the wunderground.com.
Now take a look at the water temperatures in the same spots compared to the averages and last year. Notice the warm pockets in the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and along the eastern US coast. Last year, most of the warmth was located in the central Atlantic. This year, its all over the place. Click on each image to make it larger.
The latest satellite image shows clusters of storms in these spots as of May 31st. So look for the first tropical storms to develop in these spots in June and July.
The major hurricanes that make landfall in the US originate in the locations that are the warmest this year. We will need to watch these areas VERY carefully in the months ahead.
La Nina, the temporary cooling trend in the Pacific Ocean is weakening to neutral conditions this summer and early fall. This allows the winds aloft to weaken allowing tropical storms to develop further without being sheared apart.
These factors are why the National Hurricane Center is calling for an active hurricane season. Here is their link with the details
One other thing to remember in the next several years:
We are in a period of higher hurricane activity mostly due to the Atlantic Ocean entering a "warm mode" in the mid 1990s. These warm modes typically last 25-35 years. We can trace these warm/cold modes back into the 1800s. These warm modes are directly related to higher hurricane activity. We can expect a greater than normal number of hurricanes that make landfall in the US in these "warm modes". This also increases the likelihood of a hurricane making landfall in New England. This is a REAL threat; one that's been a reality in the past and one--according to many forecasters-- will likely occur in the next 5 to 10 years.
If you vacation along the east coast in late August or early September, stay updated on the tropics. The right side of the following graph might be our reality in the future.
Why the increase this year?
Let look at the total amount of available moisture in the atmosphere in the tropics courtesy of Dr. Jeff Masters at the wunderground.com.
Now take a look at the water temperatures in the same spots compared to the averages and last year. Notice the warm pockets in the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and along the eastern US coast. Last year, most of the warmth was located in the central Atlantic. This year, its all over the place. Click on each image to make it larger.
 |
| Last year in late May |
 |
| Late this May |
The latest satellite image shows clusters of storms in these spots as of May 31st. So look for the first tropical storms to develop in these spots in June and July.
The major hurricanes that make landfall in the US originate in the locations that are the warmest this year. We will need to watch these areas VERY carefully in the months ahead.
These factors are why the National Hurricane Center is calling for an active hurricane season. Here is their link with the details
One other thing to remember in the next several years:
We are in a period of higher hurricane activity mostly due to the Atlantic Ocean entering a "warm mode" in the mid 1990s. These warm modes typically last 25-35 years. We can trace these warm/cold modes back into the 1800s. These warm modes are directly related to higher hurricane activity. We can expect a greater than normal number of hurricanes that make landfall in the US in these "warm modes". This also increases the likelihood of a hurricane making landfall in New England. This is a REAL threat; one that's been a reality in the past and one--according to many forecasters-- will likely occur in the next 5 to 10 years.
If you vacation along the east coast in late August or early September, stay updated on the tropics. The right side of the following graph might be our reality in the future.
Thursday, May 19, 2011
Weathermaps from the 1920s...80s to the 40s!
Its been a while since my last post. Too much current weather to deal with. In any case, Friday the 13th, our high was 82. By Monday, temps were already in the 40s. So my mind started working: When was the last time this happened this late in May?
It turns out that it was way back on May 24, 25 of 1925
I found a database of old weather maps online. Back on May 25, 1925, the surface chart from that day looked like this. Charts were created a bit different back then. Notice the "colder than normal" areas they noted.
Even on May 2,3 of 1920 and again May 10,11 of 1902 when temps were in the 40s in May, the old maps looks very similar highlighting the "colder air"
Here is 1902
The upper level maps for this week look like this.
Back in 1966 when we had a stretch of 40 degree weather in May this long, the upper level pattern looked like this: 
The upper level pattern on May 8, 1960, the first day of 5 days with temps in the 40s in May. All of these maps show weather patterns that are eerily similar.
It turns out that it was way back on May 24, 25 of 1925
I found a database of old weather maps online. Back on May 25, 1925, the surface chart from that day looked like this. Charts were created a bit different back then. Notice the "colder than normal" areas they noted.
The upper level maps for this week look like this.
The upper level pattern on May 8, 1960, the first day of 5 days with temps in the 40s in May. All of these maps show weather patterns that are eerily similar.
Monday, April 18, 2011
Why the increase in SEVERE WEATHER this spring?
UPDATE 4/28/2011:
Yesterday will go down as the worst tornado outbreak since the Super Outbreak in 1974 which included the Xenia tornado in Southwest Ohio. Here is roofcam video of a mile-wide tornado that went through Tuscaloosa, Albama.
The final tornado and fatality numbers will be adjusted as the official survey the damage. Here is a look at the storm reports. The tornado reports are highlighted in red. More than 160 IN JUST ONE DAY.
Great video of a storm chase/tornado in North Carolina from earlier in the month
Why the sudden increase in severe weather? Is it Global Climate Change? Is it natural climate shifts? Probably a mixture of both...The driver we will focus on is the role the Pacific Ocean plays inour weather patterns here in Northern Ohio.
The ocean temperatures go through cycles warm and cold, wet to east. This year, the ocean water temperatures are warm west and cold east near South America. This is called LA NINA. Here is an animation of the current ocean temperatures compared to normal. Notice the blue shades east.
This cooling east and warming west causes storms to develop west near Australia.
The ups and downs in the atmosphere causes the jet stream to change causing it to dive into the Great Lakes and into Ohio. Notice the "wet" green area in the Ohio Valley and the shades of red in the deep south.
Our rainfall in Northeastern Ohio has been well above normal this month.
Last year (2010), La Nina hadn't kicked in. While we did have tornadoes in Ohio (the first graphic below showing locations and intensities last year), the country had far less tornadoes overall compared to 2008; another LA NINA YEAR!
"LA NINA" springs tend to feature greater than normal numbers of tornadoes. The graph below shows the frequency of F4 and F5 tornadoes compared to LA NINA and EL NINO years. The LA NINA numbers are shown in the red.
Can we expect tornadic weather here in Cleveland and Northeastern Ohio this spring and summer? Eventually yes.
Here is a loop of the storm reports for the first two weeks of June 2008, a year similar to 2011 when comparing severe weather. Notice the severe storms are further north than the recent outbreaks.
So as the temperatures rise, expect our severe weather chances to increase across Ohio into June and July
Stay Tuned!!!
Yesterday will go down as the worst tornado outbreak since the Super Outbreak in 1974 which included the Xenia tornado in Southwest Ohio. Here is roofcam video of a mile-wide tornado that went through Tuscaloosa, Albama.
The final tornado and fatality numbers will be adjusted as the official survey the damage. Here is a look at the storm reports. The tornado reports are highlighted in red. More than 160 IN JUST ONE DAY.
Great video of a storm chase/tornado in North Carolina from earlier in the month
Why the sudden increase in severe weather? Is it Global Climate Change? Is it natural climate shifts? Probably a mixture of both...The driver we will focus on is the role the Pacific Ocean plays inour weather patterns here in Northern Ohio.
The ocean temperatures go through cycles warm and cold, wet to east. This year, the ocean water temperatures are warm west and cold east near South America. This is called LA NINA. Here is an animation of the current ocean temperatures compared to normal. Notice the blue shades east.
This cooling east and warming west causes storms to develop west near Australia.
The ups and downs in the atmosphere causes the jet stream to change causing it to dive into the Great Lakes and into Ohio. Notice the "wet" green area in the Ohio Valley and the shades of red in the deep south.
Last year (2010), La Nina hadn't kicked in. While we did have tornadoes in Ohio (the first graphic below showing locations and intensities last year), the country had far less tornadoes overall compared to 2008; another LA NINA YEAR!
"LA NINA" springs tend to feature greater than normal numbers of tornadoes. The graph below shows the frequency of F4 and F5 tornadoes compared to LA NINA and EL NINO years. The LA NINA numbers are shown in the red.
Here is a loop of the storm reports for the first two weeks of June 2008, a year similar to 2011 when comparing severe weather. Notice the severe storms are further north than the recent outbreaks.
So as the temperatures rise, expect our severe weather chances to increase across Ohio into June and July
Stay Tuned!!!
Wednesday, April 06, 2011
Opening Day and Record High Temps
Weather and baseball are two of my passions since childhood. I can't remember the first time I really had a genuine interest in atmospheric science. I've been swing a baseball bat ever since I could pick one up when I was 2 years old. The time between seasons is kind of a let-down. Continuous cold bouts here in Cleveland coupled with unpredictable lake effect snow events with countless "Alberta Clipper" snows (fast moving cold fronts from Canada) make the months of November, December, January and February slow to a crawl.
As Opening Day neared this year, I was tossing around several ideas on combining weather and baseball into an article. The weather has been cold. Fans dream of a far off day when the temperatures get to a tolerable level--anything above 40! Then it hit me: Has anyone performed a correlation between Opening Day and record high temperatures? If not, then now is a good time considering most of the eastern half of the country has experienced below normal temperatures from early December to late February. People want warmth and they want it now. Why not go for the extreme! Check out how much of the country has been below normal this winter...
Many historical articles on weather and baseball have been written for sure. Yet not many on Opening Day, Baseball and Record High Temperatures. More specifically, have we ever broke a high temperature on Opening Day in ANY GAME?
I first narrowed my search to teams that have a history that goes back to the early 20th century. The final list of teams were: BOSTON, CLEVELAND, DETROIT, CINCINNATI, NEW YORK, ST. LOUIS, PHILADELPHIA, CHICAGO AND ATLANTA (Including Boston Braves). I chose the Cubs versus the White Sox since there history goes back further. I also threw Atlanta in the list due to their southern latitude.
All 9 teams have played in 1108 games on Opening Day at their home ballpark through 2010.
Cross-referencing these games with the record high temperature on that day in THAT year, I came up with only 8 games where we broke the high temperature:
4-15-1941 Philadelphia A's vs Boston Braves - W 6-5
4-21-1921 Boston Braves vs. Washington Senators - L 1-0
4-20-1945 Boston Braves vs. Philadelphia A's - L 5-3
4-22-1938 New York Yankees vs. Washington Senators - W 7-0
4-17-1945 New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Soxs - W 8-4
4-22-1925 St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds - W 12-3
4-9-2001 St. Louis vs. Coloroado Rockies - W 3-2
4-16-1896 Cicninnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates - L 9-1
Weather records go back to the late 1800s for the cities in the east. Historical weather is highlighted by the Dust Bowl days of the 1930s. So I figured I would have found more records broke in the dust bowl days of the 1930s. That wasn't the case. Temps were cooler than average.
Average temps in April from 1931-1940 are seen here:
How about the warm decade of the 2000s according to NASA? Also, not the case. Just one record high temperature was reached in the 2000s.
Average temps in April from 2001 to 2010 is seen here:
The chances of breaking a record high temperature on Opening Day in your home ballpark is more luck of the draw. It only happens 0.7% of the time. I'll take those horrible chances than another Opening Day 2007 at Jacobs Field: Snow, wind, temperatures in the upper 20s.
Wednesday, March 23, 2011
The Last Push of Winter Ahead
Its been a rough winter for Northeastern Ohio. Almost 60 days with highs below freezing. More than 80 days with snow on the ground. How about an end?
Well not quite. The overall pattern of colder air pushing south hasn't really let up. With the exception of a few brief respites of 50 and 60 degree days over the last few weeks, the winter has been consistantly cold.
Last April was one of the warmest on record.
Now the details on what we are expecting for the rest of this month and April:
This winter has featured a strong La Nina. This means that the Pacific Ocean temperatures closer to South America have been well below normal.
This shifts the jet stream over North America so that it drives cold fronts in from Canada.
This continued into early March. Now that La Nina is finally weakening, the jet stream is backing off. This has allowed for warmer than normal air to push north into Ohio over the last few weeks.
Now, the long range outlook is for the La Nina pattern to reestablish itself one more time. Look at the temperature trend compared to normal for the first few days of April. Its still trending a bit below normal.
The long range model still show temps staying well below normal through the 29th...
Heading into early April, the temps will probably not venture much above normal which is nearing 50 by Apri 1st. Expecta continued cool and wet spring.
Well not quite. The overall pattern of colder air pushing south hasn't really let up. With the exception of a few brief respites of 50 and 60 degree days over the last few weeks, the winter has been consistantly cold.
Last April was one of the warmest on record.
Now the details on what we are expecting for the rest of this month and April:
This winter has featured a strong La Nina. This means that the Pacific Ocean temperatures closer to South America have been well below normal.
This shifts the jet stream over North America so that it drives cold fronts in from Canada.
This continued into early March. Now that La Nina is finally weakening, the jet stream is backing off. This has allowed for warmer than normal air to push north into Ohio over the last few weeks.
The long range model still show temps staying well below normal through the 29th...
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