This past weekend as I sifted through the Friday box scores comparing player stats from other years, something stood out as I checked career totals and the age of the player. Aside from a few standout players, career offensive records will become rarer and rarer in the next 10 years. Let me explain:
I took a list of career leaders in 3 offensive categories, homeruns, runs and hits. I only listed players who are at least 30 years old and who were relatively high on the all-time list which for current players is around 250th or so. Its a shorter list than you think which will be self-explanatory once you see it. Each row in the list shows the all-time rank, name of the player, age and the number of hits, runs, etc.
For comparitative purposes, I also placed a few players who are in their late 20s and have played long enough (at least 7 years) with strong enough numbers to warrant consideration as all-time record setters if projected out over the next decade. Projected is the key word here and can be dangerous as it does not take into account a down year or injuries.
The bold-faced names are players that probably won't retire in the next 2 to 3 years. This eliminates a significant number of players who, although rank high on the list, won't have enough time given their age to make a run at any records.
RUNS
46 K. GRIFFEY 38 1575
48 SHEFFIELD 39 1558
54 A-ROD 32 1530
67 F-THOMAS 40 1486
79 JETER 34 1411
83 L.GONZO 40 1400
87 M-RAM 36 1384
90 THOME 37 1371
99 OMAR 41 1345
101 C.JONES 36 1340
108 J.DAMON 34 1321
115 J. KENT 40 1231
416 A.PUJOLS 28 888
HITS
68 GRIFFEY 2615
69 OMAR 2615
79 L. GONZO 2552
80 SHEFFIELD 2550
82 I-ROD 2544
99 FTHOMAS 2448
103 JETER 2422
108 J. KENT 2387
132 A-ROD 2304
138 M-RAM 2281
141 G-ANDERSON 2268
164 C.JONES 2209
172 J DAMON 2180
220. VLAD GUERRER0 2070 (32)
546 J. PIERRE 1497 (30)
575 A. BELTRE 1487 (29)
640 A.PUJOLS 1421 (28)
704 J. ROLLINS 1354 (29)
RBI
19 GRIFFEY 1730
21 FRANK THOMAS 1701
25 M-RAM 1652
33 SHEFFIELD 1588
43 A-ROD 1535
49 J.KENT 1488
57 THOME 1431
63 GONZO 1417
67 DELGADO (36) 1404
327 PUJOLS (28) 903
416 A BELTRE 29) 813
417 A-RAM (30) 813
692 A. DUNN (28) 613
702 V. WELLS (29) 608
HOMERUNS
6 GRIFFEY 603
14 A-ROD 535
16 THOME 523
19 THOMAS 520
23 M-RAM 506
27 SHEFFIELD 485
34 DELGADO 446
43 C.JONES 403
53 J. GIAMBI 382
59 VLAD 378
64 J. KENT 374
65 EDMONDS 371
67 A. JONES 370
77 GONZO 351
88 ALOU 332
105 HELTON (34) 304
114 SEXSON (33) 304
117 PUJOLS (28) 300
122 GLAUS (31) 292
123 I-ROD (36) 292
133 J. DYE (34) 285
134 P. KONERKO (32) 285
Taking out the players who more than likely won't be in baseball in 2011, the list is narrowed down to this:
RUNS
54 A-ROD 32 1530
79 JETER 34 1411
87 M-RAM 36 1384
101 C.JONES 36 1340
108 J.DAMON 34 1321
416 A.PUJOLS 28 888
HITS
103 JETER 2422
132 A-ROD 2304
138 M-RAM 2281
141 G-ANDERSON 2268
164 C.JONES 2209
172 J DAMON 2180
220. VLAD GUERRERO 2070 (32)
546 J. PIERRE 1497 (30)
575 A. BELTRE 1487 (29)
640 A.PUJOLS 1421 (28)
704 J. ROLLINS 1354 (29)
RBI
25 M-RAM 1652
43 A-ROD 1535
327 PUJOLS (28) 903
416 A BELTRE 29) 813
417 A-RAM (30) 813
692 A. DUNN (28) 613
702 V. WELLS (29) 608
HOMERUNS
14 A-ROD 535
23 M-RAM 506
43 C.JONES 403
59 VLAD 378
105 HELTON (34) 304
114 SEXSON (33) 304
117 PUJOLS (28) 300
122 GLAUS (31) 292
133 J. DYE (34) 285
134 P. KONERKO (32) 285
Now, taking out the players who have been injury prone over the last few years and who have had a significant decline in performance in recent years (Todd Helton), you now get this. The highlighted players are in their 30s and have at least 1300 runs, 2000 hits, 1500 RBI or 500 homeruns (Pujols and Vlad Guerrero are highlighted due to their young age and consistant homerun production)
Pretty short list overall when your talking about players cracking the top 10 or 15 in each category.
RUNS
54 A-ROD (32) 1530
79 JETER (34) 1411
87 M-RAM (36) 1384
416 A.PUJOLS (28) 888
HITS
103 JETER (34) 2422
132 A-ROD (32) 2304
138 M-RAM (36) 2281
220. VLAD GUERRER0 2070 (32)
546 J. PIERRE 1497 (30)
575 A. BELTRE 1487 (29)
640 A.PUJOLS 1421 (28)
704 J. ROLLINS 1354 (29)
RBI
25 M-RAM (36) 1652
43 A-ROD (32) 1535
327 PUJOLS (28) 903
416 A BELTRE 29) 813
417 A-RAM (30) 813
692 A. DUNN (28) 613
702 V. WELLS (29) 608
HOMERUNS
14 A-ROD (32) 535
23 M-RAM (36) 506
59 VLAD (32) 378
105 HELTON (34) 304
117 PUJOLS (28) 300
122 GLAUS (31) 292
133 J. DYE (34) 285
134 P. KONERKO (32) 285
After several run-throughs at filtering out aged, injury prone, inconsistant players in the list, we get this final list.
RUNS
54 A-ROD 32 1530
79 JETER 34 1411
87 M-RAM 36 1384
HITS
103 JETER 2422
132 A-ROD 2304
138 M-RAM 2281
220. VLAD GUERRER0 2070 (32)
RBI
25 M-RAM 1652
43 A-ROD 1535
HOMERUNS
14 A-ROD 535
23 M-RAM 506
59 VLAD 378
117 PUJOLS (28) 300
The bottom line:
Only Jeter and A-Rod will have a legitimate shot at the TOP 10 in RUNS SCORED.
Only Jeter, A-Rod and Vlad Guerrero have a shot at 3000 HITS.
Only Manny and A-Rod have a shot at 2000 RBI
Only Vlad Guerrero and Pujols have a shot at 500 Homeruns in the next 7 to 10 years.
Beyond this, we are talking close to 2020 when any other all-time records have a real chance at falling.
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