Is Winter Finally Coming? Our Changing Pattern in January

THE PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT BACK TO A CLASSIC WINTER ONE.  IN FACT, LOOKING AT THE MOST RECENT PROJECTIONS FOR NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND, THE FLOW IS SETTING UP TO BE EXACTLY HOW I THOUGHT THE WINTER WOULD START BACK IN LATE NOVEMBER. 




THE COMPUTER PROJECTIONS WERE HAVING A HARD TIME LOCKING INTO THE NOVEMBER/DECEMBER PATTERN BECAUSE THE FLOW WASN'T A TYPICAL EARLY WINTER ONE. 

IT REACTED AS IF IT WAS AND PRODUCED RESULTS THAT SHOWED THE COLD AIR TO BE WAY TO STRONG.  NOW, THE COMPUTER PROJECTIONS ARE COMING INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT. EITHER THEY ARE PICKING UP ON THE CHANGING CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT-TERM OR THEY ARE ARE PICKING UP ON THE SHIFTS IN THE GLOBAL, LONG WAVE, LONG TERM PATTERN.  I THINK THE LATTER OF THE TWO BEHAVIORS FITS BEST. LET ME SHOW YOU WHAT I MEAN.

TODAY CURRENT MAP SHOWS THIS "CUT-OFF" LOW COMPLETELY SEPARATE FROM THE MAIN FLOW OF AIR TO THE NORTH.  THIS "CUT-OFF" HAS SAT OVER THE SW FOR WEEKS WITHOUT MUCH MOVEMENT.  THE PROJECTIONS HAVEN'T HANDLED THIS FEATURE VERY WELL.  OFTEN TIMES, IT'LL MOVE THE LOW SLIGHTLY MORE WEST BY SHOWING BURSTS OF COLD AIR OVER NORTHERN OHIO WHICH NEVER HAPPEN.  

NOW FAST-FORWARD AHEAD TO RIGHT AFTER THE FIRST OF THE YEAR.  THE LONG TERM PROJECTIONS SHOW THE "CUT-OFF" COMPLETELY ABSORBED INTO THE FLOW.  A SURE SIGN THAT THE NORTHERN STORM TRACK IS BEGINNING TO EXERT ITS DOMINANCE ON THE WEATHER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO.  THIS ALL MEANS MORE SMALL, FREQUENT SNOWS WITH SUBSEQUENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

REMEMBER THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION AND NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATIONS?  THEY SEEM TO BE TRENDING LOWER. THIS POINTS TO A STRONGER NW FLOW WITH MORE FREQUENT COLD BURSTS LASTING A FEW DAYS AT A TIME. THE LEVELS AREN'T POINTING AS LOW AND AS COLD AS LAST WINTER BUT ITS A TREND DOWN NONETHELESS.

WHAT WE WILL NEED TO LOOK AT CLOSELY IS THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION IN THE MIDDLE OF JANUARY.   IF A MAJOR COLD AIR OUTBREAK WERE TO OCCUR, THE ARCTIC WILL SHOW SIGNS OF IT AND THE "AO" WILL NOSEDIVE LIKE LAST YEAR AND IN 2009.

Arctic levels dropped VERY low in December

2010 arctic levels drove temps well below normal early in the winter

REMEMBER:  SINCE 1950, 15 OF THOSE 60 NOVEMBERS AND DECEMBERS HAVE HAD LESS THAN 10 INCHES OF SNOW.  THAT'S 25!  THE JANUARY'S THAT FOLLOWED AVERAGED 14 INCHES OF SNOW FOR NORTHERN OHIO (NOT COUNTING LAKE EFFECT AREAS). 
 
THAT IS THE EXACT AMOUNT THAT MY COMPOSITE SHOWED LAST WEEK! 

I GUARANTEE SNOW FOR JANUARY WITH MORE FREQUENT COLD SPELLS. SNOWS WILL BE ALBERTA CLIPPER IN ORIGIN. 

THE LAKE IS STILL WIDE OPEN AND I DON'T THINK IT WILL FREEZE THIS YEAR. THIS MEANS THAT ANY COLD AIR WHICH FOLLOWS THESE CLIPPERS FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL SURELY CREATE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS.

WINTER-LIKE TEMPS ARE CLOSER THAN WE THINK!