December 11 Forecast UPDATE

Some spotty light sleety snow this morning.  Intensity is very low. Heavy cloud cover. Temperatures are in the lower/mid 30s which is limited accumulation. Wind chills in the mid 20s.  Mainly wet roads.

We are 10 days into December.  Most days have been above average.

Most of North America is also experiences above normal temperatures so far this month. Notice the lack of blue color.

Historically, since 2013 (last 10 winters) in northern Ohio we've averaged around 12 days below average in December.  last year, most of the below normal days occurred after December 20th.  We remember the brutal cold around Christmas in 2022.  (The complete recap HERE).

Back to today.  Skies will start to clear in spots later this afternoon. Most of the clearing will occur after sundown and overnight tonight.

Gulf moisture stays south as the dominant direction fronts are arriving from is the northwest.  Southwest winds Tuesday with a break from the cold. Limited moisture so clouds will increase Wednesday with no snow or rain.  A slight wind shift (SW to NW) will drop temps briefly Wednesday into the mid 30s.

Beyond that, the week ahead looks very quiet across much of the eastern 2/3rds of the US.

Rainfall forecast is well below normal across much of the mid-west.

Snowfall is virtually non-existent through next Sunday possibly longer.

Next front should pass at the earliest late Sunday December 17 or early Monday of next week.  Cold air behind this front looks brief. Limited moisture so rain and/or snow looks brief and light.

West to east flow across the central US reestablishes itself the week before Christmas

Why is mid December shaping up to be relatively quiet and snow-free for the mid-west? Extremely strong jet stream off of eastern Asia due to late November ridge of high pressure over central Asia and its interaction with the Himalayan Mountains.

The strong Pacific jet keeps the flow of Pacific air going into the western US. Without any strong storm systems across the continent to steer cold from the north, the flow stays west-to-east and fairly uneventful.

Milder trend looks to continue into Christmas week along with an active southern storm track.

We are still watching the high potential for COLD after the first of the year.