Snow Totals From Last Week's Storm?

Snow started early Friday morning and ended late Saturday evening/night.

Here are the individual totals for each region of northern Ohio:

Seasonal Snow Totals Through January 22 - Last 10 Winters:

Comparison between last winter and this winter through January 22 across northern Ohio.

Deepest Storm in 30 Years Tuesday!

How did I miss this.  Tuesday's panhandle system was deep but little did I know that it was VERY deep. Using the Iowa Mesonet site (a fantastic meteorological resource for everything data/graphing you can think of) I was able to check the lowest pressures for each year.  at roughly 7pm, the air pressure dropped to 978.4 mB or 28.89" This ranks the 4th lowest since 1970 and the deepest since January 14, 1992! So mark your calendar, January 9, 2024 at 7pm EST.

This also caused 60+ mph winds across parts of northern Ohio.

The next deep panhandle storm will arrive Friday perhaps as deep as the Tuesday system. Center of the storm tracks across NW Ohio Friday evening 1/12/2024. Expect 50+ mph wind gusts yet again.

Here is where this ranks since 1970. The values below are from the Iowa Mesonet site which might be slightly different. Top 25 listed here.

Here is the daily average surface pressure contour for the top 4 on the list. The current storm at the bottom.

January 26, 1978

April 2, 1979

January 14, 1992

January 9, 2024

How Many Days WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL Thus Far?

Our winter outlook back in late October featured a very slow start to winter with above normal temperatures for December. So far, that has worked out.

Interestingly since December (through Jan 10), we've only had 3 DAYS BELOW NORMAL (high & low average). Looking back I can't find a winter with this few BELOW NORMAL days in northern Ohio. Graphic shows last 30 years (left side) with a few notable historically warm/cold winters on right.

About 80% of Ohio is running 5-10 degrees ABOVE NORMAL since the start of December.

Average temperatures across the entire mid-west, Great Lakes and Ohio Valley is ranked close if not the warmest on record.

Midwest/Ohio Valley/Great Lakes Temperature Ranks Since December 1

In fact temperatures across roughly half of the US are now ranked in the top 10 warmest thus far.

Temperature Ranks (Dec 1 to Jan 7)

How Often Do We See Snow on Christmas? Cold?

Maybe you remember the super warm Christmas back in 1982 when we reached 66° degrees. Perhaps you remember the following Christmas when the high temperatures was 1°. Most of remember the brutally cold period leading up to Christmas last winter (2022).

What was the Christmas weather like when you were a kid?  I created this handy chart showing the Christmas weather history for northern Ohio going back to 1940.

Enjoy!

December 18 - Forecast Discussion - First Snow in Ages!

As of this writing (December 18 at 7am) we haven't seen shovel-able snowfall since November 28th. 

The last time this happened was...well, last year.  Here are the years where we saw less snow between Nov 28 and Dec 17. Notice how the occurrences were more sporadic before the 2000s. 

Snowfall departures across the US are also running well below normal. Interesting that portions of northern Missouri, central Kansas, North Dakota and parts of New England running well above normal.

Graphic Courtesy Ben Noll

Ohio Valley snowfall totals (as of December 15)

December 15 Forecast Update - A Look at December Thus Far

So far, December temperatures have been above normal not only across northern Ohio but across most of the US. Red colors indicate above normal temperature regions.  Check out my previous POST which goes into why the pattern has been so mild/snowless.

Snowfall thus far has also been slightly below normal for northern Ohio. Snowfall over the last 10 years through December 15. The average is around 7".  This year, snowfall has been a bit under 5".

Here is the list of the least snowy winters through the END of December.  How much snow did these winters get AFTER January 1st?  Most of these winters ended up with significant snowfall.  Only TWO ended up with below normal snowfall.  This isn't a forecast.  But it does tell us that we should never use one month (in this case December) as a predictor of the rest of the winter season.

Here's a look at the last ten Decembers going back to 2013 nationwide.  Warmer colors indicate above normal temps. Green/blue colors indicate below normal temps.  Notice how many of these years have featured more overall "warmth" than cold. The last December that featured more than 50% of the US with below normal temperatures was 2013!

Why The Milder December? A Detailed Look Into January

Just finished a detailed video of the primary drivers of the milder December and how these drivers will influence the pattern shift into January.  Enjoy!

December 11 Forecast UPDATE

Some spotty light sleety snow this morning.  Intensity is very low. Heavy cloud cover. Temperatures are in the lower/mid 30s which is limited accumulation. Wind chills in the mid 20s.  Mainly wet roads.

We are 10 days into December.  Most days have been above average.

Most of North America is also experiences above normal temperatures so far this month. Notice the lack of blue color.

Historically, since 2013 (last 10 winters) in northern Ohio we've averaged around 12 days below average in December.  last year, most of the below normal days occurred after December 20th.  We remember the brutal cold around Christmas in 2022.  (The complete recap HERE).

Back to today.  Skies will start to clear in spots later this afternoon. Most of the clearing will occur after sundown and overnight tonight.

Gulf moisture stays south as the dominant direction fronts are arriving from is the northwest.  Southwest winds Tuesday with a break from the cold. Limited moisture so clouds will increase Wednesday with no snow or rain.  A slight wind shift (SW to NW) will drop temps briefly Wednesday into the mid 30s.

Beyond that, the week ahead looks very quiet across much of the eastern 2/3rds of the US.

Rainfall forecast is well below normal across much of the mid-west.

Snowfall is virtually non-existent through next Sunday possibly longer.

Next front should pass at the earliest late Sunday December 17 or early Monday of next week.  Cold air behind this front looks brief. Limited moisture so rain and/or snow looks brief and light.

West to east flow across the central US reestablishes itself the week before Christmas

Why is mid December shaping up to be relatively quiet and snow-free for the mid-west? Extremely strong jet stream off of eastern Asia due to late November ridge of high pressure over central Asia and its interaction with the Himalayan Mountains.

The strong Pacific jet keeps the flow of Pacific air going into the western US. Without any strong storm systems across the continent to steer cold from the north, the flow stays west-to-east and fairly uneventful.

Milder trend looks to continue into Christmas week along with an active southern storm track.

We are still watching the high potential for COLD after the first of the year.