How Common Are Spring Temperature Swings In Northern Ohio?

Our human nature is an exercise in self-deception. In the case of weather, our biases can undermine how we look at weather forecasts and past weather events. I like to call it "Behavioral Meteorology". Here's is an example that I guarantee has been said thousands of times over the last several days: "This Ohio weather is crazy! I don't remember changes like this. Wait five minutes and it'll change."

Just look at the high temperatures over the last 2 weeks. 46° to 28°.   40° to 63°.  33° to 52°. Plenty of ups and downs. It's easy to draw the conclusion that these big changes are unusual. 

Look at the temperature forecast through St. Patrick's Day across the eastern US.

But when we look at the entire middle of the country, the locations that see the greatest frequency of day-to-day temperature change might surprise you. The central US -- Eastern Nebraska, northeastern Kansas, northwestern Missouri, portions of Iowa and southern South Dakota -- experience the largest day-to-day temperature swings especially in March and April. Ohio is on the list but no where near the top.

How did I figure this out? I downloaded the high temperatures for each day for 20 cities over the last 50 years. I found the day-to-day high temperature differences and counted up the instances when it was more than 20 degrees. I plotted the results on the map above. For northern Ohio, I tabulated the totals for each month and graphed them below.

This year was the coldest in northern Ohio in a decade (winter of 2014-15). The number of days with high temperatures under 30 was the highest in 7 years. We had triple the number of days with snow on the ground compared to last winter. Large high temperature changes this winter only happened 4 times of at least 15 degrees.

Snow and cold in December through February has been replaced with rain and milder air. These warmer changes are welcomed. But subconsciously, they make us feel uneasy as we try to make sense of rapid temperature changes historically.  Psychologists call this "Cognitive Dissonance". None of us like to feel uncertain or conflicted.  We all have a built in motivation to reduce conflicting ideas by altering the existing conditions in our mind to create consistency. How many times recently have you had a conversation with someone and they said, “What is the deal with this crazy weather…what is going on here?”

Our weather perceptions are powerful.

Here a chart showing the March-April-May instances since 1950 where the high temperatures change more than 20 degrees day-to-day. The average is between 4 and 6 each spring. No big changes over the years in northern Ohio.

We view the weather through our own senses. We interpret all of this information through our own individual frame work. This frame work is built through our own experiences coupled with a hard-wired lens that shapes what/how we view what occurs around us.  We are inclined to favor information that reinforces our comfort level and preconceived notions. This is called a "Confirmation Bias". The problem is that by creating "consistency" through favoring information, we can create a new false interpretation of the weather which we believe to be true. In a nutshell, our own human nature deceives us. Our biases "cloud"--no pun intended--our judgment of the weather changes.

As much as we perceive these fluctuations to be a new thing here in northern Ohio, it is quiet common in early spring. Will these big changes continue in the weeks ahead?  Just look at the temperatures over the next 2 weeks!