Does Our Early Winter Warmth Mean An Above Normal January & February?

JEFFERSON, OHIO

Someone today mentioned that it had been a LONG TIME since we had such a mild late fall/early December in northern Ohio. So I checked the temperatures to see if this was true.  Sure enough. He was right.

WARMEST YEARS - NOVEMBER 1 to DECEMBER 7

1st    2001              
2nd   1931  
3rd    2015 (thru December 3rd)
4th    1994   
5th    1982 
6th    1998 
7th    2011 
8th    1902 
9th    1948 
10th  1909

That's great but what are the January-February periods like in these years? The final numbers are below:

• ALL BUT ONE WAS SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL

• 4 OF THE TOP 10 YEARS STAYED IN THE TOP 10 IN JANUARY AND FEBRUARY

WARMEST YEARS        JANUARY-FEBRUARY 
NOV 1 to DEC 7            TEMPERATURE RANKS  (DEPARTURE - 30 YR RUNNING AVG)

1st    2001                9th warmest            +6.4    
2nd   1931              1st warmest          +10.5  
3rd    2015              ???
4th    1994              64th warmest          +2.1   
5th    1982                19th warmest          +6.2
6th    1998              34th warmest          +3.5 
7th    2011              10th warmest          +4.7 
8th    1902              81st warmest          +0.1  
9th    1948              8th warmest            +5.8  
10th  1909              102nd warmest       -1.0  


Unless something changes significantly, our winter outlook which featured near or slightly above normal temperatures with slightly below average snowfall should hold up.

Tale of Two Different Aprils

Cedar Point in late April

It's hard to believe but temperatures for the first 3 weeks of April were well above normal. I've mentioned this fact to many people and they don't believe me.  Of course since then, the average temperatures have been anything but warm. The recency effect, as I've written, has certainly played a part in most people's perceptions of the April temperatures as a whole. Here are the numbers and handy pictures:

The first 20 days of April were above normal for not only Ohio but much of the US.

It was the 4th warmest first 20 days of April in Cleveland since 1871! The only years warmer were 1945, 1955 and 2010.

 Then the bottom fell out since then...

The temperatures across not only Cleveland but the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and portions of the Deep South were well below normal. The period from April 21 through April 28 was the 7th coldest on record. The last year which featured a colder late April was 1940!

Luckily, the forecast for the beginning of May is showing a nice warm up. Expect temperatures in May to average above normal.