Severe Storms VERY Possible Across OHIO SUNDAY AFTERNOON

The Storm Prediction Center has painted OHIO in a Moderate Risk for Severe Storms SUNDAY. To give you an historical reference point to what this means, OHIO usually goes under a MODERATE RISK only a few times a year. Bottom line, don't take this threat lightly.

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Remember, a SEVERE THUNDERSTORM is a storm with 58 mph winds AND/OR 1" hail or a tornado. When any one of these criteria are met, a SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING is issued.

Here are the meteorological parameters for tomorrow:

Super strong jet stream...left front exit region over Lake Erie

Upper level diverging air at 500mB (18,000 feet) which translates into rising air at the surface.

Pocket of HIGH surface winds across northern Indiana and Ohio exceeding 40-45 mph.

. Sharp temperature gradient...

Expect a fast moving squall line (embedded severe storms) late Sunday afternoon into the early evening Sunday. The timing a strength of the line of storms will need to be monitored.

Snowcover Photos from Across Northern Ohio

Now that the cold front has passed, the lake effect has begun with winds out of the NORTH Current RADAR LOOP shows localized lake effect as far west as Norwalk and as far south as Canton.

RADAR LOOP HERE
 
An atypical fetch for lake effect but one that we saw frequently back in the winter of 2009-2010. See my previous post on the DIFFERENT FLAVORS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

Since the cloud are low level clouds with limited moisture, it doesn't take much wind to break up the clouds enough for some breaks of sunshine.

 That partial sunshine made for some nice photos from FOX8 viewers earlier today.

Akron, Ohio snow

Austinburg, Ohio

Carrollton, Ohio

Mayfield Heights

Penfield, Ohio

Rittman

Canton

Hudson

Northern Ohio: First General Snowfall of the Season

We normally average about 5 inches or snow for the month of November. This Alberta Clipper coming in later this evening could bring that and more for parts of the snowbelt.  Here's how this will shape up?

Temps will climb into the mid 40s with some strong winds later today.

TEMPS AND WINDS AS OF 8:45AM

Rain will develop later in the afternoon. CLICK ON THE RADAR IMAGE BELOW FOR THE LATEST LOOP.

The high resolution model (HRRR) brings in the leading edge of the rain across northern Ohio by 3PM.

The transition from rain to wet snow will bring in the early evening and continue.

The initial snow from the front will give us about 1 to 3 inches of wet snow late evening and overnight. Then lake effect will develop primarily east and a bit south into northern Summit and Portage counties with a northwest wind.

The lake effect will give us an additional 1-3 inches tonight and Tuesday.

Super Typhoon Haiyan - One For The Record Books

Super Typhoon Haiyan made landfall over the Philippines Thursday afternoon Eastern Standard Time with winds reported at 195 mph. Keep in mind that in the western Pacific, unlike the Atlantic where Hurricane Hunters fly into hurricanes to take wind and pressure measurements, no flights are made into these tropical systems. So wind speeds are estimated with satellite data. Some verification of the 195 mph speed will need to be done before the experts can say with certainty that this is legit.

 

 A great visible satellite image and loop showing the well defined eye as it passed

Now the loop. Click on the image below

Watch the feeder bands weaken through this microwave imagery satellite loop as it passes over land then reorganize once over open water

A really neat image from Eurosat with the curvature of the earth as a reference point. The diameter of Typhoon Haiyan is roughly 400 miles. Hurricane Katrina's diameter was similar.

What are the tropical storms that had wind speeds of 190 mph?

Typhoon Tip in 1979 hit 190 mph at peak intensity in the western Pacific

Hurricane Camille in 1969 had wind speeds of 190 mph when it hit the Gulf Coast

For comparison sake, Hurricane Katrina had wind speeds of 120mp when it hit Louisiana in 2005

According to Dr Jeff Masters of the Weather Underground, typhoon wind speed estimates were too high in the 1940s through the 1960s. He has a list of typhoon wind speeds from that period that are a bit suspect HERE.

The track of Typhoon Haiyan is west over the South China Sea and into Vietnam Sunday.

Tale of Two Different Solutions For Next Week's Forecast

Early in the week, I spoke of the probability of a pattern shift to colder one next week. One model (GFS for you technical weather geeks) was showing 50s and 60s while the other model (EURO) was showing a huge storm over the eastern US with lake effect snow. This is all in the top panel of the graphic below.

Fast forward to today (the bottom panel in the graphic below), the EURO model has been consistent in its depiction of the trough/low in the east (lower right) while the GFS just yesterday and again today is now showing the same thing (lower left).

The "C" indicates COLDER and troughiness. The "W" indicates WARMER and ridging. The RED circle indicates Ohio.

I write all of this to illustrate that weather is much more than looking at computer model outputs.  Its understanding what computer projection one is more accurate in certain situations.

Let's see in the days ahead which one nails next week's forecast.

Warm or colder mid-November? Fun with teleconnections

I love to play with the huge palette of teleconnections at our disposal. As we transition from fall to winter, the big ones like the AO and the NAO will gradually become main drivers of cold air outbreaks across the North American continent. The PNA will give us the pressure tendencies across the west. This would signify a ridge/warmth out west or a trough/cooler out west. The opposite would occur in the east. So let take a look at what they are saying today on Election Day.

The AO

The NAO

The PNA - Notice the +PNA corresponded to our cold spell in late October

This is all fine and dandy. The problem is that the GFS is showing a HUGE ridge in the east with temperatures well above normal by the 21st.

So what do we make of all this? 

First, the atmosphere is an inherently complex and chaotic system. A few teleconnections, while a good tool to use, rarely tell the complete story unless the indices are extreme to one side or the other.

Secondly, there is a distinct trend for the AO and NAO to sag into "cooler, troughy" territory. But for a colder, snowy pattern to develop, the numbers would have to go decisively negative which isn't shown here. The PNA is trending the other direction from the levels (strongly positive) during our brief lake effect snow event in late October.  PNA sharply negative indicates a ridge (milder temps) in the east NOT cooler.

So we might have to wait a few weeks for cold enough air to bring a good lake effect snow event.

One Year Ago, Superstorm Sandy - A Look Back

Its hard to believe but its almost been a year since Superstorm Sandy started reeking havoc along the eastern seaboard. Now its time for a look back.

I’ve always used my blog as a diary chronicling my thought process on different topics each day. Often times, I write about what I call “behavioral meteorology” or the study of how we each perceive the weather through our own biased lenses. This time last year, my attention was significantly diverted to the increased potential of a major east coast storm. My passing interest was driven by purely science. The reality sunk in that this storm could directly affect one of the largest population centers on the planet. My interest quickly shifted to documenting every weather detail as they unfolded.

Below are all 9 blog posts I made from October 22nd to November 1st of last year (2012).

Big Storm Next Week? No Storm…What To Believe?
http://sabolscience.blogspot.com/2012/10/big-storm-next-week-no-stormwhat-to.html

Late October Atlantic Hurricane…Potential Storm Next Week
http://sabolscience.blogspot.com/2012/10/huge-warmuplate-october-atlantic.html

Hurricane Sandy Update #1 of 3- Impacts on North Carolina Coast
http://sabolscience.blogspot.com/2012/10/hurricane-sandy-update-1-of-3-impacts.html

Hurricane Sandy Update #2 of 3 – Landfall Projections, New England Impacts
http://sabolscience.blogspot.com/2012/10/hurricane-sandy-update-2-of-3-landfall.html

Hurricane Sandy Update: 3 of 3 – Northeast Ohio Impact
http://sabolscience.blogspot.com/2012/10/hurricane-sandy-update-3-of-3-northeast.html

Hurricane Sandy – Monday Update – Northern Ohio Forecast
http://sabolscience.blogspot.com/2012/10/hurricane-sandy-monday-update-northern.html

Hurricane Sandy Making Landfall
http://sabolscience.blogspot.com/2012/10/hurricane-sandy-making-landfall.html

Historic Northern Ohio Winds/Lake Erie Waves/Snowfall as Sandy hits Ohio
http://sabolscience.blogspot.com/2012/10/historic-northern-ohio-windslake-erie.html

Climate Change and Hurricane Sandy. What to Believe?
http://sabolscience.blogspot.com/2012/11/climate-change-hurricanehybrid-sandy.html

October Snow in Northern Ohio

Lake effect snow in northern Ohio is common....but usually not before Halloween. Here is what our classic lake effect skies look like in Cleveland:  Sunshine west; heavy, low and unstable cloud cover with rain and wet snow east

 
Here are the best of the best October snow photos! You can always email me weather photos at scott.sabol@fox8.com

Snow in Mayfield Heights

Snow on a pumpkin in Middlefield, Ohio

Parma, Ohio

Beachwood, Ohio accumulations

Garfield Heights, Ohio

Andre Bernier's photo of 5" in Chesterland, Ohio

Lyndhurst, Ohio snow

Snow on the west side...Westlake, Ohio

Jefferson, Ohio near Lenox Township

Branches down in Highland Heights

Snow in Newbury, Ohio

How Do We Define a Cold, Snowy Winter?

How often have we heard the saying "Perception is Reality"?  

No other phrase describes the weather better than this one. We look at past winters through our own lense molded by our own experiences in that weather. Maybe we were on our way to a Christmas party in a snow storm. That storm will leave an indelible mark in our minds because of its proximity to Christmas. This memory often places more emphasis on the current weather than a more innocuous event. We might perceive the winter to be more harsh as a result. 

I've often heard people talk about how mild last winter was here in northern Ohio.  Yet when I site the data which shows that the average temperature from early November to March 31st last winter was SLIGHTLY COOLER than the 20 year average, people are skeptical.

There must be a more detailed story behind the typical winter narrative we are used to. Generalizing degrees of cold and snow just doesn't cut it. So how do we quantify why we remember a winter to be COLD or NOT SO COLD; SNOWY or NOT SO SNOWY?  

As I stated above, sometimes the average temperatures or total snowfall don't tell the complete story. For example, last year's overall average temperatures were SLIGHTLY BELOW THE 20 YEAR AVERAGE! Hard to believe but its true. 

The 5 month average is misleading to be sure. How about snow...we had more snow last year than the year before right?

Now let's dig a bit deeper beyond the generalities and averages.  The number of days at or below 30 degrees during was more than DOUBLE the year before

...and we had a week's worth of nights in the single digits well above the winter before.

...and we had almost 3 weeks MORE with at least one inch of snow cover!

I mention all of this to people and its still not enough to convince them that this past winter wasn't as "mild" as how they perceived it. Digging deeper still into the data shows the most important stat of all: The number of days at or above 40 was pretty high on the list. We probably remember those days more than the run-of-the-mill 30 degree days.

What can we learn from this in determining how we personally define a "cold and snowy" or "not-so-cold and snowy" winter?  

*  We remember the weather extremes better than the run-of-the-mill "typical" winter weather. 

*  We easily forget the single digit nights and the consistent snow cover vs the winter before. 

*  We diminish the importance of the days when the temperatures stayed in the 20s. 

We chalk all of this as normal.

Coming off of several winters with below normal snowfall and milder temps, we involuntarily assign more importance to the winter days above 40 degrees--the warmer extremes--so the memory becomes stronger as a result.  

What will stand out in the months ahead in solidifying our memory of this winter?