How Often Does July Feature Above Normal Temperatures? July 2020 Outlook

Here is a look at the average OVERALL temperatures for each July for Cleveland over the last 50 years. RED circles indicate years that were above normal by at least 1 degree.

Let's add BLUE circles to indicate years below normal.

How about the number of days with ABOVE NORMAL high temperatures?
Last year we had more than average.  Yet from 2013-2015 above normal high temperatures in July were way down.

Bottom line:  July isn't always consistently hot historically like many of us believe.

So what is July 2020 looking like?

The position of the ridge of high pressure in the central US will dictate how hot we get in the Ohio Valley. This animation shows the ridge expanding after July 8th.

We'll be on the eastern edge of this heat ridge. This will more than likely allow some NW to SE moving storms to develop early next week and again mid-month...

Analog composites show this too. Something to watch.

Bottom line July Outlook:

Temperatures: Above normal (25 of the 31 days above normal)
Rainfall: Well below normal

Cristobal About to Break a Unique Record

Tropical Storm Cristobal is now inland after making landfall along the Louisiana coast.

The forecast track takes the remains north through the central US and into the upper midwest/northern Great Lakes.

The western trough/surface front picks up the remains of Cristobal and lift it north...

This is very unique because after more than 2000 tropical systems in the Atlantic Basin since 1851 no tropical system has EVER impacted Iowa, Wiconsin, Minnesota and the upper peninsula of Michigan.   All of the multi-colored lines on the animation show EVERY tropical system since 1851.

Widespread rain the gulf coast north into central Canada.

The trailing front will boost temperatures across the upper midwest ahead of the remains of Cristobal Monday and Tuesday across the Ohio Valley

MONDAY HIGHS

TUESDAY HIGHS

Which Weather Warning is issued the most in northern Ohio?

The Iowa https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/ is a fantastic resource for looking up past weather data. Warning: The site can suck you in so plan on spending some time bouncing around the different archives and graphical tools.

One element I found very interesting was the plotter that allows you to plot the NUMBER of specific types of watches and warnings PER MONTH for each NWS office.

How frequently are specific watches and warnings issued out of the NWS Office in Cleveland by month?

Tornado warning high months include MAY 1995, AUGUST 1997, JUNE 1998, NOVEMBER 2002, JUNE 2010, MAY 2014  (NOTE: Warning issuance changed from a county based system to storm based system for specific county areas in 2007)

TORNADO WARNINGS

Severe Thunderstorm Warning high months include: JUNE 1994, JUNE 1998 (HIGHEST), JULY 1999, JUNE 2008 (NOTE: Warning issuance changed from a county based system to storm based system for specific county areas in 2007)

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS

FLOOD WARNINGS

HEAT WARNINGS

Surprisingly only 4 of the last 15 years have had EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS issued. 2019, 4 in 2012, 3 in 2011 and 2 in 2006.

WINTER STORM WARNINGS

Wind Chill Warnings are by far the least issued warning of the ones listed here

WIND CHILL WARNINGS

Earliest EVER Remains of a Tropical System - OHIO

The Remains of tropical storm Bertha this morning is the earliest ANY post-tropical system has impacted Ohio beating these 3 others (1968, 1939, 1902). Last time we had one this early in the season move thru northern Ohio: June 18, 1939 (MFD: 1.03")

Bertha developed off shore a few day ago along the Carolina coast.

National Hurricane Center forecasted the remains to move along the Ohio/PA line.

May Snow & Cold in Cleveland/Northern US

Here in northern Ohio we typically say that if you make it to Tax Day, the chances of seeing snow are pretty remote. Not this year. Late April cold invaded the eastern half of the US and again in early May!  A ton to unpack here so let's get to it.

~2" snow in Auburn Township - May 9, 2020

The month didn't start off super-cold. We had a few days in the 70s during the first weekend. Watch the progression of the cold across the northern US via the RTMA temperatures between May 2nd and 5th.

Historically this is what May should look like.

There have 19 years since 1950 with at minimum snow flurries in May and only a handful of years with measurable snow. I remember May 15, 2016 because I was at a baseball tournament coaching. It was a Sunday and there was snow on the ground at 7am!

Earlier last week, the models were showing a strong surge of cold for Friday/Saturday, May 8-9th. Based upon both the GFS and EURO long range data for Detroit and Pittsburgh--IF verified--this would tie or possibly break the all-time upper level sounding data record for 850mB (5000 feet) cold !set back in 1966 While this isn't where we work and live, this level is critical for determine lake effect snow and surface temperatures.

The sounding history for Detroit shows the EURO forecast for both temperature and 500mB heights at record levels for early May

This is what the 850 mB temperatures read at 8am Saturday morning, May 9th:

Temperatures at 500mB (18,000 feet) were also extremely cold for early May.

Our forecast called for "thundersnow" due to the large temperature change from Lake Erie (45 degrees or 7.5°C) to the temps above (-32°C)

Radar loop Saturday morning showed definitive areas of lake effect

North Royalton

Highest amount: Auburn Township - ~2"

Northern Ohio snow reports - courtesy NWS Cleveland

Northeast snow Saturday May 9, 2020

Check out the progression of record lows Saturday morning across the US.

Core of the cold over the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes and New England Saturday morning.

Wind chill at NWS Cleveland dropped to 20 at 7:51am Saturday May 9th

Has this happened before?  Here are two composite years:  1986 and 1966

After a break Sunday with temperatures near 60 with storms/shelf cloud passage in the early evening...

Vermilion - May 10, 2020

...another clipper front passed through early Monday morning, May 11th. Yet another shot of frontal/lake effect snow!

Chardon - ~2" of snow - May 11, 2020

Hambden Township - May 11, 2020

Mayfield Heights - May 11, 2020

* 2020 marks the only year in Cleveland (NWS Cleveland-Hopkins) since 1954 with multiple days of snow flurries and/or measurable snowfall in the month of May

* New record snowfall this late in the season at NWS Cleveland: 0.2" on May 11th which breaks old record on 5/10/1907

* 5/11/2020 high of 45 was also the COLDEST high temperature in the last 100 years this late in the season (tied 5/11/1996)

We still haven't reach 80 degrees this year. A warm up is coming! (regression to the average which is now nearing 70)

Potential high temperatures Thursday, May 14th

Here are the years when we touched 80 or better after May 15th (since the 1930s). The list is short:

Lake Erie Sunset 5/11/2020