How Does the Cleveland Indians Payroll Compare To MLB Average?

These numbers are not adjusted to inflation. They are base numbers compiled from Cots Contracts and www.thebaseballcube.com via retrosheet.org. All graphs show data from 1995 through 2020. Attendance numbers are through 2019 due to Covid-19 pandemic. 2020 payroll data is adjusted for the shortened 60 game season.

First overall Cleveland Indians payroll vs MLB yearly average since 1995

Numbers inflation adjusted to 2020 dollars...

Cleveland Indians yearly payroll ranks since 1995.

Cleveland Indians yearly attendance rank since 1995.

Indians WINS vs YEAR to YEAR attendance change. Changes in attendance don't seem to be connect with team success.

All MLB team payrolls vs team average attendance over five years (2015-2019). R-squared is 0.525

Where do the Cleveland Indians fit on this scatterplot? See white dots on graphic below.

This would suggest that is a fairly significant correlation between attendance and team payroll.

If we subtract the top and bottom 10 teams each year, we get this relationship below. The correlation seems to be a better, tighter fit.

Next we correlate MLB team payroll vs winning percentage. The correlation is less significant. R-squared is only 0.225.

White dots below indicate the Cleveland Indians on the graph. Notice that they have been pretty good at making the most out of their limited financial resources.  

Does attendance and winning percentage correlate more than payroll/winning percentage? Not really.  R-square is only 0.241.  Look at the upper left quadrant. Many teams have decent attendance numbers with more loses than wins! Having a good team (more than 81 wins) doesn't mean attendance always follows. 

(See the graphic earlier showing Cleveland WINS vs Changes in attendance)

Cleveland Indians are the white dots below for comparison

So what does all of this mean?  

* The correlation between MORE team spending and higher attendance is strong (graphic 6, 7, 8). 

* Spending tons of money doesn't necessarily mean a higher winning percentage (graphic 9 & 10)

* Winning more games (81 or more) doesn't necessarily mean higher attendance (graphic 11 & 12)

* There are other factors (perhaps unemployment, socio-economic, other professional sports team influences) which drive attendance unrelated to team spending and team success.

Fangraphs has an excellent piece showing other factors 

Snow or Rain for Christmas week?

As of this writing (December 8) with a week removed from our heavy snowfall, the overall pattern across the US and North America has been somewhat stale. No major snow.  No major rainfall.  No extreme temperatures either way. Look at the morning lows Tuesday December 8th. No major cold.

Temperatures each day this week look fairly typical for early December. A brief period of milder air Friday and Saturday then back to near normal.

Is this "stale" pattern going to continue over the next 14 days as we approach Christmas week?

Back on December 3rd, the pattern strongly suggested a short-lived, "mid-month-ish" break from the cold with an active panhandle storm track (see the "L" on the picture below). The warmth is going to peak Friday the 11th, a few days early. 

So far, the storm track seems pretty good with primarily rain this weekend for Ohio with the majority of the snow staying across Missouri, Illinois and parts of Michigan. Snow is close but not close enough if you're a snow lover. (see animation below)

Historically, we receive at least ONE INCH or more of snow between December 24-26. Most recently 2.6" in 2018.  Who remembers the BIG snow in 2002?

Northern Pacific pattern is starting to give us BIG hints on Christmas week.  1) LOW just west of the dateline 2) Edge of high pressure south of the weak Aleutian Islands which stretches to the west coast. 3) Trough in the southwestern US which continues to promote panhandle low development

Animation from December 7 to December 23

The Southern Oscillation Index region also gives us big clues.  Recall that the SOI is an index that measures pressure changes between Australia and Tahiti. 

When we look at the southern oscillation index (SOI) data , there is a 10 point drop around December 3rd.

We can check what the pattern was like during similar SOI changes in La Nina early winters 18-22 DAYS AFTER the SOI changes. This is what those composite periods look like below.  Notice the colder colors signify CLIPPER TYPE storm systems and brief cold periods. See how quickly they move across the Great Lakes.  Also look how the southern high pressure centers quickly bounce back...

Let's not forget about the lack of significant BLOCKING around the arctic and northern Atlantic.  We look for warmer colors which signify HIGH PRESSURE around Greenland. Not much blocking currently. There are some indications that this could be changing in the upcoming week. 

This strongly suggests that the active storm track Clipper systems (NW to SE) AND panhandle systems (SW to NE) seems fairly strong over the next two weeks heading into early Christmas week. The big question is where specifically: 

Will the storm track trend more from St. Louis to southern Michigan or more east from Louisville, KY to Pittsburgh?

Early Christmas week, I see another storm system developing in the central US similar to what we have already seen. Given the east coast ridge is stronger, I think this will create a storm track more from St. Louis to Michigan vs more east.  

Temperatures across Ohio will briefly warm into the 40s at the start of Christmas week

I think we will see a better chance of rain not snow Christmas week for northern Ohio. Timing of rain (brief mix) is closer to WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY, DECEMBER 23-24.

I'm watching Greenland for potential COLDER changes

 If I had to put money on it, chances for light snow on the ground Christmas Day are around 30%. 

What's The Most Underrated Lake Effect Snow Variable?

The snow event on December 1st makes a great case study on lake effect snowfall.  In many instances, its difficult to separate general synoptic/system snow from actual lake effect as they tend to overlap. I like to classify the events into three phases.  First is system snow. Second--the most tricky of the three--is system snow+lake enhanced snow. Third is only lake effect snow as the storm system moves out.

Lake Erie water temperature was 48 degrees F (9C). 850 mB temperature (5000 feet) was -9C so temperatures difference was around 18 C. You need a temperature difference of at least 13C to create lake effect snow so this was good enough. After checking my lake effect snowfall diary (yes I have one of these. It shows various lake effect snow events back to the 1960s/70s) a basic setup like this could easily create decent snowfall!  Yet Bufkit (NWS forecasting application) showed only conditional instability which meant the ability for the air to rise creating distinct bands of lake effect snow would be on the low end (see the radar loop above).   Hmmm.  

So why did the models, the NWS and other local meteorologists forecast significant snow?

Initial NWS Cleveland forecast

My initial forecast. Snowfall was conservative

I checked the system moisture to see if this was shallow or deep.  Sure enough, it was BOTH! Look at the coverage around the Great Lakes. The moisture depth was up to 10,000 feet. 

The final snow totals were extremely impressive. 20-25" in the snowbelt. 10-15 south and west of Cleveland.

This weekend, we have a few clipper cold fronts passing through.  Each one will produce periods of colder air. 850 mb temperatures (5000 feet) will drop to -9C late Sunday/Monday.  Lake Erie water temp is between 45 and 48 degrees F (7-9C).  Instability per Bufkit (NWS forecasting tool)  will be conditional.  So far it looks very similar to the big event earlier in the week!

So why is this weekend's snowfall forecast so much different than the December 1 event?

Answer is simple:  TOO LITTLE MOISTURE

The overall system moisture is not widespread nor is it deep as Tuesday's storm.  See how the dry air denoted by tan colors is pulled in from the west.

Here is my initial snowfall forecast for December 5-7 and the NWS snowfall forecast.  HUGE difference compared to the snow earlier in the week

In my opinion, one of the most underestimated components in forecasting lake effect snow is moisture.  You can have temperature conditions that are very similar yet the snowfall results can be hugely different. 

So don't forget to check the depth and spatial coverage of the moisture before each snow event. 

First BIG snowfall of the season!

My previous post written before Thanksgiving illustrated the strong possibility of a significant snow. The pattern has been ripe for this type of event. Sometimes the large scale pattern doesn't always translate to a big weather event locally so I'm glad the outlook and subsequent forecast worked out. 

I try to enjoy forecasting success. I'll remind everyone on social media when we get it right.  I also know full well that long range and short range forecast failure will eventually give me a reality check. When that happens I always own it. I find out what I missed or didn't utilize. It's filed away so I can use it as a forecasting tool in the future.)

Here is the entire radar loop showing the widespread snow December 1st and the lake enhancement/lake effect at the end.

The 9.5" at Hopkins Airport was the 12th most single-day snowfall since record keeping began at the airport around 1940 and 15th since 1900. The list below shows Hopkins Airport snow numbers AND the downtown snow numbers which is from ~1890s to roughly 1940.

Here is the entire snowfall total list for northern Ohio

History of Snow Between Thanksgiving and Christmas: Are Our Chances Higher This Year?

In late October, we issued our WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK for 2020-2021.  The general idea is for a backloaded winter with shorter "teaser" periods of cold and snow in December.  So far (as of this writing before Thanksgiving, we've had under an inch of snow). 

Sledding with my kids when they were much younger!

How much snow do we typically get between Thanksgiving and New Years' Eve? We average around 10" over the last 10 years although the trend for early season snow has dropped over the last 15 years.

How about actual snowfalls?  We average around 4 one-inch snowfalls during the holidays.

Snowfall is one thing. But snow on the ground during the holidays is entirely different. More days with snow on the ground, the better chance we will remember it as a "snowy" holiday. We average around 8 days with snow on the ground over the last 10-15 years. 

As of this writing we are watching for changes in the pattern that strongly show more cold.

* Ridge developing across central Asia

* Jet stream across the North Pacific changing

* More frequent lows across Northern Pacific

All of this is resulting in the high pressure across the western US/North America with low pressure across eastern US. We call this a +PNA pattern (Pacific North American)

The super-long range model output into Christmas week is also strongly hinting at this eastern TROUGH/COLD lasting beyond December 20th. While I think this is probable, my confidence is high ONLY through the first two weeks of the month.

Animation from Thanksgiving to December 21st

Historically we average 15 days with temperatures in the 30s or COLDER over the last 10-15 years. Last winter we had 14 days in the 30s or COLDER before December 31st

Either way, cold and BELOW NORMAL temperatures are coming the first week of December with good chances of accumulating snow along with lake effect multiple times! Winter is coming everyone...