Morning Severe Storm Event of March 1st

Lightning damage in Dorset, Ohio

We just experienced our first severe weather event during the morning show in almost 3 years.  Given the volatile history of the storm system which was responsible for baseball size hail and one fatality from a tornado in central Illinois, we knew this event had pretty high potential for severe storms and a tornado warning or two.  We mentioned the increased likelihood of strong/severe storms more than 24 hours before the event.

If you familiar with my weather casts, you know that I rarely use the word "severe" to describe storms unless the situation warrants it.  The reason why is simple: When most people hear the word "severe" when describing storms, they immediately think "tornadoes".  The last thing I want to do is invoke the idea of tornadoes when in most severe storm cases (less than 10%) the chances of a tornado occurring are small.

Tuesday morning--24 hours before--was one of those instances where I used the word "severe" multiple times to describe the next day's outbreak. The possibility of northern Ohio going under a severe thunderstorm watch was high enough to be included in the forecast. All high resolution projections showed two distinct severe storm clusters tracking across Ohio between 12am and 8am. It was the second one that had us concerned not only because of it's elevated severe weather potential but because it was developing overnight when most people are sleeping. This animation below was generated at 1am Tuesday more than 24 hours before the event:

The two severe storm clusters projected location at 1am Wednesday.

By Wednesday morning, the second storm line above had already produced a strong tornado in central Illinois and one fatality.  That same storm produced baseball size hail.

Ottawa, Illinois

The Storm Prediction Center had issued this discussion specifically for the second line of storms BEFORE the severe thunderstorm watch was issued at 3:25am. See the strong wording below.

Mesoscale Discussion 0233
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1244 AM CST Wed Mar 01 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of southern Lower
   Michigan...northeastern/central Indiana...and northwestern Ohio

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 45...49...

   Valid 010644Z - 010745Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 45, 49
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A squall line will continue advancing east across the
   discussion area early this morning. An attendant threat for damaging
   winds will persist as these storms track east.

   DISCUSSION...With broader large-scale ascent (e.g., coupled upper
   jet structure) spreading across the Great Lakes region, rejuvenation
   of an ongoing squall line over southern Lower Michigan/northern
   Indiana has occurred. Despite some surface-based convective
   inhibition/weak low-level stability, the upscale organization of the
   line, combined with 1-km flow around 50 kts, will maintain a threat
   for occasional damaging wind gusts, especially in any bowing
   segments. Additionally, considering the magnitude of the low-level
   shear, a brief tornado remains possible.

The severe thunderstorm watch was issued a few hours later for ALL of northern Ohio. Remember, on FOX8News This Morning the day before, we mentioned the strong possibility of a watch being issued.

Several tornado warnings were issued for portions of CUYAHOGA, GEAUGA, SUMMIT. MEDINA AND PORTAGE counties between 6 and 6:30am Wednesday morning by the National Weather Service due to rotation being detected by Doppler Radar. By 7am, the line was east of northern Ohio. The Severe Thunderstorm watch was discontinued from west to east.

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Yet even after a potentially dangerous situation like this, there continues to be individuals especially on social media who question how we covered the event. For the record, I always grade myself after events like this. Did I do everything right?  Did I convey the seriousness of the event without blowing it out of proportion?  I can honestly can that I wouldn't have done anything different.

In the weeks ahead, we'll talk about the advancements of severe weather prediction and communication.

Will Cold Air Return After the Late February Warmth?

The stubborn southeast ridge threw a wrench in our winter temperature and snow outlook for Cleveland and the Ohio Valley (more on that next week). We anticipated it to stay further east It has remained very strong throughout winter driving many panhandle low type storms along with temperatures recently to levels only reached a few times since record keeping began in 1871.

The stretch of warmth in Cleveland will more than likely end up being the warmest 11 day winter stretch ever!  This February stretch is similar to a warm February stretch back in 1976 and 2000. Notice the widespread nature of the warmth back in those years.

Looks similar to this stretch...

Yet California keeps getting pounded with heavy rain/snow as the very strong Pacific jet stream continues. Reanalysis of vector wind anomalies at 300 mB since December 1st (3 day running average). Pacific jet is through the roof strong. No sign of the ominous western ridge which was dominant over the last several winters.

The MJO strength increased significantly since early February to very high amplitudes into Phase 6,7 and 8 territory.

Phase 7 and phase 8 in February with high amplitudes tend to favor warmth east. Yet look at Phase 8. It tends to favor cooler temperatures east (middle chart below). So even with a very strong MJO the temperatures can be highly variable. What I find interesting is that the Phase 1 temperature composite (far right map below) looks very similar to the overall pattern since this current warm up began.

The chances of this February finishing out as the warmest ever in Cleveland is climbing fast.

Will colder air return?  If so, how strong?

To answer this we look at the Pacific teleconnections to start March. I reference my quick cheat sheet so that I can visualize the pressure regions in question.

PNA is heading sharply negative
EPO is heading positive/neutral
WPO is heading negative (strongly negative)

Strongly negative WPO during the first week of March

What do these teleconnection levels mean for our sensible weather?  Historic temperature composites for each of these indices (PNA,WPO,EPO) in March mean below normal temperatures across the northern states centered over the Corn Belt and High Plains. The Computer models are also depicting colder air (see graphic below, lower left) centered across the upper midwest/west to start March with above normal temperatures across the eastern US and deep south.

While we should anticipate short-lived cool intrusions across the Great Lakes, temperatures overall will average out near the 30 year average (see lower right graphic) for the first week of March.  For Cleveland, daytime average high temperatures for March are in the lower 40s. 

Long range teleconnections for the middle of March show some colder signs centered central US and west. Something to watch over the next week.

The South Oscillation Index (SOI)--changes in the pressure patterns in the tropical Pacific Ocean (click here for more on the SOI and here)--shows rising pressure in the central US March 10-13th after the central US trough slides east March 7-9th.

Will the weak trough be a more permanent feature over the Great Lakes or will a warmer ridge develop by the 3rd week of March?  The answer will be apparent in both the SOI changes. The teleconnections will reflect the changes by the end of next week.

Does A Warm or Cold Winter Mean More Late Season Snow?

We hear it every winter after a period of extremes:

"This cold means a rough start to spring".

or..."These warm temperatures mean were going to get a big snow in March".

Is there any truth to this historically?

The first chart below shows some of the coldest winters (December through February) on record in Cleveland and each daily snowfall occurrence regardless of the amount from the 3rd week of February to roughly the Vernal Equinox (March 20th). I didn't use years prior to 1900 as snowfall data is frequently incomplete. The second chart shows the same daily snowfall but for some of the warmest winters on record.

Light blue days indicate snowfall under ONE INCH
Dark blue days indicated snowfall greater than TWO INCHES
Red days indicate snowfall greater than FOUR INCHES

25 days with at least one inch of snow
3 days with at least four inches of snow

26 days with at least one inch of snow
3 days with at least four inches of snow

Bottom line: A very warm or cold winter overall seems to have little bearing on late winter snowfall

Outlook For The Rest Of Winter? Written January 19th/Updated Feb 9th

Yes. It's a catchy title that probably evokes many suspect responses.  Let me explain my self:

Big cool down late this month/first week of February followed by a warm up by mid month February per the Bering Sea Rule which dictates ridge over the Bering Sea correlates well to eastern US ridge roughly 16-18 days in the future.





The GFS shows this ridge evolution quite well.

February 9th Update:

BSR verification (forecast left panel with actual heights right) for the period above looks pretty good.

This warm up may be the final nail in the coffin shutting down arctic cold for good this winter. Why? Check this out...how much snowfall did we get from 3rd week of February to start of spring in 10 historically cold winters in Cleveland? Not much...

Possible EPO/NAO Connection in January, Cold Implications

The EPO was forecast to drop significantly negative around New Years.

Today, the EPO has probably bottomed out with a slow increase over the next week or so.

The EPO derived by finding the pressure changes between these locations in the northern/eastern Pacific Ocean.

Notice how the Northern Pacific ridge evolved since Christmas to what it was on New Years Day. The SE ridge began to break down as the trough progressed east as the Greenland high shifted back west.

There have been only 3 other instances where the EPO dropped to under -400 in January for at least a few days. Each instance featured widespread cold:  1963, 1974 and 1991.  Notice the southeast ridge attempting to push warmer air further west in 1974 and 1991.

The models, both the EURO and the GFS kept the trough west until January 1st when it began ejecting the trough east.

EURO output for January 7th. 12-26 and 1-1

The Greenland block suggests a -NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) which connects to colder east. The southeast ridge should not be this strong. Yet the southeast ridge continues to linger for the last several weeks.  A Greenland Block argues against the southeast ridge. But the weak La Nina signal argues for it. Have there been instances historically in January where the EPO goes strongly negative (-300 or below) similar to the current situation with a positive NAO (stubborn southeast ridge)?  Yes.

The battle goes on. The key, I believe, lies in the cool pool in the northern Pacific Ocean. It has prevented a strong ridge tendency across the western US which locks in the trough across the north and central US. The southeast ridge is hard to overcome.

What does all this mean long term through the end of January?

1) The lack of change in the sea surface temperatures in the northern Pacific Ocean will make western US ridge development difficult. 2) The trough will continue to drift east bringing with it shots of cold but it will be transient. 3) The southeast ridge will continue to play havoc with forecasts reducing long bouts of cold across the eastern US for the foreseeable future. The NAO will have more of an influence the second half of winter.  Look for more panhandle-type systems the rest of the month similar to the one this weekend.

Current US Snow Cover vs Last Winter & Others

Quick look at the progression of US snow cover shows many ups and downs. The first graph shows the snow cover during two cold winters nationally starting December 15 through mid May. Interestingly, the peaks and valleys in these two winters (2013-14 and 2010-11) match up with the exception of mid January.

The numbered peaks correspond to large scale cold periods. See the US temperature anomalies below for each peak.

#1

#2

#3

#4

The graph below shows snow cover over the same period with the two cold winters above along with the El Nino winter 2015-16 added in red. A spike in late December and two smaller ones in January preceded a steady decline from late January through the end of the winter.

The yellow line shows this winter's snow cover through December 27th now at 41%.

Expect this number to steadily climb through the first two weeks of January 2017 north of 65% given the colder long range outlook below.

History of My Browns "0-for" Beard 2016

Its Christmas Eve. The Browns finally won. The collective sense of relief felt across Browns Nation is palpable. Yes, the beard will soon be history. The finality of it all has filled me with a sense of closure. The Browns win-less streak is behind them. My beard will soon be a casualty of the razor. Yet I can't help but be a little nostalgic. I've grown beard for a variety of reasons over the years. What's the real reason why I grew this beard?  Here's is my beard retrospective.

It all started back in 2011.  I was trying to find some excuse not to shave each day before heading to work at WJW FOX 8.  There is an unwritten rule put forth years and years ago that television personalities need to stay cleanly shaven.  There are some exceptions to the rule in the television world. But in general, facial hair--even today with beards in style--is a no-no. Anyway, I approached my boss with a weird idea.  What if I grow my beard until the temperature reaches 60 degrees.  After all we were in the midst of one of the coldest winters in decades. It would be a slap-in-the-face to old man winter. Everyone was sick of the cold and snow. We could promote it on our morning show.  I could make fun of the beard.  Most of all, I wouldn't need to shave for an extended period of time.  I was hoping for 3-5 weeks tops.  In the end, the whole "no shaving until 60 degrees" beard lasted around 30 days.  I shaved it off in stages. My kids had a great time coloring it.

Beard 2011

Scary beard in 2011. I think I colored it if I remember

The following year, I grew my beard for Mow-vember. In the end I raised $2000 for cancer research.  It was for a great cause. It was for the kids.  Once again, I didn't have to shave for 30 days.

November 2012

In late 2013 shortly after Christmas,  the itch (no pun intended) to grow a beard surfaced again.  This time, I would soften the request with my boss (who was more than likely onto my yearly beard growing stunts) by stipulating that I would only grow my beard until we reached 50 degrees.  The request was granted. I was ecstatic. I would start New Years Eve. No more shaving for another unknown period of time!  Unfortunately we were also in the midst of yet another brutally cold winter.  Snow cover blanketed northern Ohio. Many nights fell well below zero. We didn't see the grass until mid March.  People were getting stir-crazy.  My beard continued to grow....through January and February into early March.  The whole beard growing thing became an exercise in self deprecation. We all made fun of it.  It became synonymous with the cold.  We finally reached 50 and I shaved it on PI day, March 14th in stages. My beard grew for 74 days.

Beard early 2014

Beard in February 2014

Shaving the beard in stages

March 14, 2014

Fast forward to late August of 2016.  After one of my son's football games, he mentioned that it's been a while since I grew a beard...almost three years. Both of my kids have fond memories coloring my beard with sidewalk chalk when they were really little.  Around this time RG3 went down with a serious injury after game one of the Cleveland Browns season and I needed another excuse to grow a beard. After Labor Day I approached my news director and asked him if I could grow my beard again until the Browns win their first game.  He looked at me a bit funny and said  "Are you sure you want to do this?"   I answered without hesitation, "Absolutely!" He agreed and added the stipulation that in the event the Browns go 0 and 16, you shave it at the end of the season.  Statistically, the chances of this happening were so remote that I never thought of it as a viable possibility.  I agreed and boom...I was off!  My thinking in early September was that even with the "Browns quarterback by committee merry-go-round" we would surely a win in the first few weeks.  At the worst, the Browns record would be 1-4 or 1-5 with a win before New England in week 5.  There was no way I could break my beard growing record set back in early 2014 of 74 days.

Week 5 came and went with no win...

So did week 6 and on and on...

week 6

I was getting a bit worried. I might have this beard around Halloween....or Thanksgiving. That would be day 77 if you're keeping score. My boss kept saying, "Aren't you glad we added the 0 and 16 thing early on?"

Week 14 - Day 101

So here we are.  It's the holidays. It's December and I'm well past day 80, day 90 and now day 100. We've hung Christmas ornaments on the beard on the morning show.

December 14, 2016

The beard has received its own mail (with beard oil and beard butter).

The Browns were now 0 and 14.  The attention has been a bit overwhelming.  Never did I think that my beard would last this long. Remember, this was all an excuse not to shave for a few weeks at best.

After Browns win against San Diego - Day 107 - Christmas Eve

Finally on Christmas Eve, the Browns earned their first win of the season against San Diego. My phone blew up as literally hundreds of people took time out of their busy Christmas Eve activities to send me messages filled with joy.  Most were glad the Browns won. Many were also glad the beard was finally toast. I couldn't believe it.

Most people understood the intention was not a serious one even as the "0-for" beard evolved. I've always been a Browns fan since I was a kid. I remember the glory days of the 1980s.  I remember the day the Browns left in 1995. I remember walking into old Cleveland Stadium to buy a seat in 1996. My basement is decorated in Cleveland sports memorabilia spanning 30 plus years.  This season was as tough for me as it was for all of Cleveland. I can't imagine how tough this has been on the Browns organization.

So I want to thank everyone who has followed this since September 8th.  Its December 25th. I just finished applying some Beard Oil to my 106 day old growth knowing that the end of the beard is at hand. My family is rejoicing. It's truly been an exciting ride.

Tomorrow, December 26, during the morning show on WJW FOX 8 we will shave it off in stages.  I'm sure I'll need many band-aids.