December 18 - Forecast Discussion - First Snow in Ages!

As of this writing (December 18 at 7am) we haven't seen shovel-able snowfall since November 28th. 

The last time this happened was...well, last year.  Here are the years where we saw less snow between Nov 28 and Dec 17. Notice how the occurrences were more sporadic before the 2000s. 

Snowfall departures across the US are also running well below normal. Interesting that portions of northern Missouri, central Kansas, North Dakota and parts of New England running well above normal.

Graphic Courtesy Ben Noll

Ohio Valley snowfall totals (as of December 15)

Currently, the east coast storm is heading into New England. On the back end, the trailing cold front is approaching. Winds will gust to 30+ mph this afternoon/evening.

Here is the forecast timeline:

Most of the rain is light and spotty this morning with temperatures in the upper 30s and lower 40s. Eventually, the front will pass this afternoon. Temperatures will start to fall starting around midday and continue into the evening commute. Timing for snowfall accumulation will be after 4pm and will continue into the early evening commute. Initial melting will occur as temperatures remain in the lower/mid 30s as the snow begins.

Winter Storm Warning (replaced the Watch) in effect from this afternoon through late morning Tuesday. Forecast snow amounts for snowbelt haven't changed much. Warning replaced the watch because we are 24 hours before the onset of the snow. Winter Weather Advisory (4-6" snow in 12 hours) was issued for Shoreline Ashtabula, Lake, Cuyahoga, Medina, Summit, Portage and Trumbull counties. Note that the entirety of these counties will not receive these snow numbers. Higher snow amounts in the advisory areas will be in eastern/southern Cuyahoga, northern Medina, Summit and Portage counties. 

Once the front clears, general snow will end by mid evening.  Then we transition to lake effect snow late evening/overnight. By 7-9am Tuesday, lake effect will taper as drier air arrives from the west. Temperatures will remain in the lower 30s Tuesday so any snow cover will remain through the day.

Here is the snowfall forecast.  First part is Monday late afternoon/evening. Second part is late evening/overnight.  

Temperatures climb back into the 40s starting Wednesday and through the weekend melting off the snow cover. Stalled front late in the week will produce a few spotty, light showers. Panhandle storm track continues next week. White Christmas chances under 10%. Better chance for rain late Christmas evening/Tuesday.

Colder period by the 26/27th (highs in the 30s).