December 15 Forecast Update - A Look at December Thus Far

So far, December temperatures have been above normal not only across northern Ohio but across most of the US. Red colors indicate above normal temperature regions.  Check out my previous POST which goes into why the pattern has been so mild/snowless.

Snowfall thus far has also been slightly below normal for northern Ohio. Snowfall over the last 10 years through December 15. The average is around 7".  This year, snowfall has been a bit under 5".

Here is the list of the least snowy winters through the END of December.  How much snow did these winters get AFTER January 1st?  Most of these winters ended up with significant snowfall.  Only TWO ended up with below normal snowfall.  This isn't a forecast.  But it does tell us that we should never use one month (in this case December) as a predictor of the rest of the winter season.

Here's a look at the last ten Decembers going back to 2013 nationwide.  Warmer colors indicate above normal temps. Green/blue colors indicate below normal temps.  Notice how many of these years have featured more overall "warmth" than cold. The last December that featured more than 50% of the US with below normal temperatures was 2013!

For today's forecast, we start out with clear skies and milder temperatures. Ridge of high pressure right overhead keeping the winds very light. Trailing cold front with rain ahead of it arrives before sunrise Sunday. 

So we stay dry and around 10-12 degrees above normal today and Saturday. Clouds will increase ahead of the front Saturday. Rain on Sunday will impact all of Ohio and last between 6-9 hours. Most of the steadier rain looks to be east of northern Ohio by early afternoon. Rain coverage Sunday afternoon/evening will be on and off. Temperatures will remain in the mid/upper 40s. 

Rainfall Sunday will be at least 1/2" with locally higher amounts.

The gulf coast low is in the early stages of formation as of this writing. This will head up the east coast. Cold front will be absorbed into it. It intensifies as it heads north. Northern Ohio will be on the western edge late Sunday and Monday. 

Here is the breakdown on how next week will unfold:

• Cold air filters in behind the low Monday
• Winds will gust to 30-35 mph Monday. Temps will fall into the mid 30s Monday afternoon.
• Scattered rain to snow late Monday with general accumulations
• Too early for snowfall numbers. Higher chances for light accumulations
• Monday night/early Tuesday lake effect snow will develop 
• East coast storm moves out fast. Drier conditions late Tues/Wednesday
• Panhandle storm track continues (per long range outlook). Next system looks to be rain not snow the weekend before Christmas

Snowfall coverage through Tuesday. Updates on snowfall forecast this weekend