History of Snowfall After March 20

We usually see snow after the first day of spring. Rarely does this NOT happen. How often?  Here is a nice calendar of ALL of the snowfalls in Cleveland since the late 1800s.

A few things to note as you read the chart.  For March, only snows greater than one inch. Between April 1 and 15, only snows at/greater than 1/2".  Between April 16-30, snow amounts greater than 0.1".  After May 1st, all snows including trace amounts.  I color coded select ranges for easy reference.

The latest snow (trace) was May 27, 1927

Note there has been no snow after May 27.  Any frozen precipitation after May 27 was hail.

PI day: Why is PI important?

It's one of my favorite days of the year!  A day when geeks of all ages can show off their PI stuff and skills at recitation.  I used to know PI to 75 digits. Your kids might have PI day activities planned at school today. I'm sure back in 1737 when Leonard Euler first used the symbol π, he never envisioned the fascination with π that developed since.  There are t-shirts, π plates (yes, I have two), π mugs...and on and on. Novelty websites have just about every π trinket you can think of!

What is PI " π"?

PI is the number that represents the ration of a circle's circumference to its diameter.

The interesting part is that PI is non-repeating and never ending so its very nature is an approximation. Mathematicians have tried to find patterns within π since ancient times. Archaeologists believe that the ancient Egyptians constructed the Great Pyramid of Giza with knowledge of π. Greek mathematician Archimedes was the first to calculate a range for π  using polygons.

Throughout it's history, π has become a fascination among mathematicians and more recently computer programmers. Welsh mathematician William Jones was the first to use the symbol π to represent the ratio of a circle's circumference to it's diameter in the early 1700s. In the 1940s, a little over 1000 digits of π were known.

As of July 2024, the record for PI calculation is 202 trillion Digits.

Read about it HERE.

The last 50 digits are:  5683914937 4658179610 2004394122 9823988073 3622511852

In 2014, scientist Ed Karrel calculated more than 10 QUADRILLION hexadecimal digit of PI.

  Using hexadecimals make it faster to calculate. Converting hex to base 10 numbers which we all use each day is very difficult when you have these many digits according to Ed.  Here is his blog.

To put the number of digits in Ed Karrel's calculation into perspective, you only need 39 digits of PI to calculate the circumference of the observable universe (assuming it's a sphere) to the accuracy of a width of the inside of an atom!

To put it another way, if you were to recite EVERY digit, it would take you 317,000,000 years to complete. You'd need to start before the dinosaurs were alive in order to finish today!

All of this great if you are a math or computer geek. But why should the rest of us care?

PI is present in every aspect of our lives. PI is used in most calculation in the development of all the world's infrastructure. All communications, CAT scans, MRI machines, genetic research, propulsion systems (space and military aircraft), quantum physics....the list goes on. Famous scientific discoveries and the math that describes them incorporate PI:

* The calculation for determining the horsepower of your car has PI in it.

* Einstein's famous equation that describes relativity which is now directly applied in
   satellite calibration has PI in it. Here it is in very simple form:

* The math that determines electric force (electricity) includes PI.

*  How about the speed and volume of blood flow inside the first artificial heart? You bet.
    PI is included in that calculation too.

* Want to figure out the position of two planets nearest to the earth? You need PI.

* Radio communications, cellphones, GPS satellites (see Einstein's equation above) computer hard drive/processor technology were both developed using mathematics that incorporates the number "PI".

* Airlines use PI to calculate flying distance around the earth

* Manufacturing uses PI to figure out how much of a substance will fit into a volume
   of circular or cylindrical space

You might not like math. You might not get PI.  Just remember that PI (3.14159...) is integrated into our everyday life unlike any other number. Without it, your daily life would be totally different.

How Common Are Spring Temperature Swings In Northern Ohio?

Our human nature is an exercise in self-deception. In the case of weather, our biases can undermine how we look at weather forecasts and past weather events. I like to call it "Behavioral Meteorology". Here's is an example that I guarantee has been said thousands of times over the last several days: "This Ohio weather is crazy! I don't remember changes like this. Wait five minutes and it'll change."

Just look at the high temperatures over the last 2 weeks. 46° to 28°.   40° to 63°.  33° to 52°. Plenty of ups and downs. It's easy to draw the conclusion that these big changes are unusual. 

Look at the temperature forecast through St. Patrick's Day across the eastern US.

But when we look at the entire middle of the country, the locations that see the greatest frequency of day-to-day temperature change might surprise you. The central US -- Eastern Nebraska, northeastern Kansas, northwestern Missouri, portions of Iowa and southern South Dakota -- experience the largest day-to-day temperature swings especially in March and April. Ohio is on the list but no where near the top.

How did I figure this out? I downloaded the high temperatures for each day for 20 cities over the last 50 years. I found the day-to-day high temperature differences and counted up the instances when it was more than 20 degrees. I plotted the results on the map above. For northern Ohio, I tabulated the totals for each month and graphed them below.

This year was the coldest in northern Ohio in a decade (winter of 2014-15). The number of days with high temperatures under 30 was the highest in 7 years. We had triple the number of days with snow on the ground compared to last winter. Large high temperature changes this winter only happened 4 times of at least 15 degrees.

Snow and cold in December through February has been replaced with rain and milder air. These warmer changes are welcomed. But subconsciously, they make us feel uneasy as we try to make sense of rapid temperature changes historically.  Psychologists call this "Cognitive Dissonance". None of us like to feel uncertain or conflicted.  We all have a built in motivation to reduce conflicting ideas by altering the existing conditions in our mind to create consistency. How many times recently have you had a conversation with someone and they said, “What is the deal with this crazy weather…what is going on here?”

Our weather perceptions are powerful.

Here a chart showing the March-April-May instances since 1950 where the high temperatures change more than 20 degrees day-to-day. The average is between 4 and 6 each spring. No big changes over the years in northern Ohio.

We view the weather through our own senses. We interpret all of this information through our own individual frame work. This frame work is built through our own experiences coupled with a hard-wired lens that shapes what/how we view what occurs around us.  We are inclined to favor information that reinforces our comfort level and preconceived notions. This is called a "Confirmation Bias". The problem is that by creating "consistency" through favoring information, we can create a new false interpretation of the weather which we believe to be true. In a nutshell, our own human nature deceives us. Our biases "cloud"--no pun intended--our judgment of the weather changes.

As much as we perceive these fluctuations to be a new thing here in northern Ohio, it is quiet common in early spring. Will these big changes continue in the weeks ahead?  Just look at the temperatures over the next 2 weeks!

US and Great Lakes Snowfall Recap Thus Far

Snowfall across northern Ohio started out impressive in late November. More than 60"+ inches of snow fell in parts of the snowbelt. The most in parts of eastern Lake and the northern 2/3rds of Ashtabula county since the record setting lake effect event in November of 1996.

Photo: NWS Cleveland

Snow across northern Ohio and the Great Lakes started out with a bang in November and December. Here are some great images from Meteorologist Ben Noll showing snowfall vs normal by November 22 around the Great Lakes and nationally.

Snowfall vs Normal through November 22

After the big snow at the end of the month, snowfall recovered fast. Blue and Purple areas indicated WELL ABOVE seasonal snow.

Nationally through December 10:

Here is the snowfall vs normal map through December 18th:

Now snowfall vs normal through January 1st.  Notice how the departures began to drop around the Great Lakes snowbelt areas. Below normal snowfall the latter half of December.  The November snow kept the overall seasonal totals above normal.

National snowfall numbers also started to drop.

The snowfall decline accelerated in January. The snowbelts still had spots with seasonal snow above normal driven by the late November snows. Snowfall was well below normal since January. Much of the interior regions were running well below normal snowfall by early February.

The middle of the US, upper mid-west and most of the Ohio Valley was well below normal by early February.

By March 1st, the seasonal snow across the Great Lakes was almost back to normal. Snowbelt of northern Ohio, PA and western New York only slightly above due to the late November snowfall.

Seasonal snowfall across the US east of the Rocky Mountains through March 1 is characterized like this:

• Well below normal snowfall in the central US, upper mid-west, Ohio Valley including Pennsylvania, New Jersey and parts of New England.

• Slightly above normal snowfall in the Great Lakes snowbelts due to early season snow. Below normal snowfall since January 1st.

• Above normal snowfall in the south from southern Missouri, Arkansas, Kentucky and Tennessee.

• Above normal snowfall along the gulf coast due to the late January record snowfall:

Ohio and Pennsylvania snow depth animation from November 20 through March 3:

My next post will dive into northern Ohio snowfall further comparing this year to years similar

Lake Erie Ice Cover History UPDATE (1972-Present)

Click to enlarge each image to show the daily ice coverage for NOVEMBER, DECEMBER, JANUARY AND FEBRUARY (THROUGH FEB 4, 2025) each month dating back to 1972

Sure, January Is Supposed To Be Cold. Why Is This Year Different?

When I derive long range outlooks especially in winter, the responses are usually something like "January is Supposed to be cold. What's the big deal?".  The cold this month is much different.  Usually we don't get into serious, longer stretches of cold until the third week of the month. Historically, the cold to starts to January typically are accompanied with small breaks with temperatures in the 40s. 

Here are the high temperatures for each day through the 15th over the last 20 years in January.

Almost every year had some break from colder periods. The last cold period to start the year was in 2018. That only lasted 6 days.  The longest "colder" period was in 2010 and 2011.  Even in those years we had a few days above 40 degrees. It's looking like we won't have a day above 35 degrees until after January 15th!

Overall High Temperature Forecast for Cleveland, Ohio Through January 18th

Back on December 7th, the signals were strongly pointing to long stretches of cold to arrive around the 1st of the year. Notice the cold air draining south from the Arctic Circle with no breaks across the eastern half of the US.

Again, this cold has staying power. The pattern across the continent is locked in through the middle of the month. Here is a look at the number of days below normal for the first half of January over the last 25 years. The years on the right side are 13 of the top 25 coldest January years on record for comparison. I also differentiated between the number of days below normal and the number of days 10 degrees, 20 degrees and 30 degrees below normal.

A few things to note: 

* The last time we had a first half of January with more days below than above normal was 2018

* The period between 2009 and 2018 featured more days below normal than 2018 through 2024

* Only three years had EVERY DAY below normal between January 1 and January 15th:

                                                        1981, 1977, 1970

* We average about 5 days below normal in the first half of January over the last 10 years

What about the second half of January?

Below normal days in the second half are more numerous since 2018 versus the first half of the month. Extreme cold days are also more frequent even in the historically cold years in the 1970s and 1980s