March Warmth As A Guide To Summer Temperatures

During each transition season of spring and fall, people incorrectly attempt to predict the next season's warmth or cold by using the current season's temperatures as a guide. The conversations go something like this:

"This warm March means we're in for a super hot summer" or "This cold and rainy fall means we're in for tons of snow this winter." or some other combination like this.

Does this line of thinking work?

I checked the top 10 warmest March years for 8 cities (Cleveland, Cincinnati, Detroit, Indianapolis, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Milwaukee and Buffalo) and ranked them. I found the top 10 warmest years that occurred the most frequently for all of the cities and plotted a summer (June through August) composite (blend) temperature map of these years weighting the more frequent--top 6--warm years higher.

Summer blend - Most Frequent Top 10 Warm March Years - Top 6 Weighted Higher

I next plotted the blend of only the top 6 most frequent years of occurrence that were previously weighted. Notice the warmth become more widespread in this blend.

Neither one of these composites above are blast furnace summers by any stretch.

The problem is that both of these composites mask the individual year extremes. Look at each of the top 5 most frequent years of occurrence?  Each summer varies a great deal. A more detailed look at March 2012 (hottest on record in northern Ohio HERE) 

When we create our summer outlook each year, we perform an in-depth analysis of specific current conditions and combine it with computer projections of these conditions into the future. We combine this with some statistical analysis (similar to the above maps) to come up with a consensus outlook. Its more complicated than saying "its warm or cool now therefore it will be warm or cool next month/next season".

Bottom line, seasonal outlooks are very complex.  Don't be fooled by monthly warmth especially in early spring. It doesn't necessarily mean that an equally warmer than normal summer is ahead.

More on the summer outlook later in April.

End of Winter Right? Not So Fast

Northern Ohio has not had a string of days above 40 degrees similar to what we will enjoy this week since the week of Christmas. That stretch went from December 22nd to December 28th (44, 52, 59, 41, 49, 54 and 47).  While it feels great as it melts off the majority of the snow cover (big piles will stay around a while), the pattern is still ripe for more cool air relative to the averages for this time of year.

To be clear, mid March sun is much stronger than mid January sun.  The average temperature for March 8th is 44 degrees. The average temperature on March 23rd is 50.  So temperatures in the 30s or lower 40s would be considered below average. It's all relative to the season in question. It's not arctic but its not considered spring.

One of the components that we use in formulating longer range outlooks of 8-14 days is the EPO.  Its a measure of the pressure patterns in the eastern Pacific Ocean (EPO region in red boxes---excuse my crude drawing). I also included the WPO which is another favor in evaluating the pressure pattern (further west) over the Pacific Ocean.

This winter (since January), high pressure has settled over Alaska and western Canada/western US while low pressure developed south northern of Hawaii. Notice the trough and cold across the eastern US.  When the EPO is negative, this favors cold and snow east; milder temps and dry west.

The EPO has bounced back positive recently.  The trough in the east and the cold have retreated north as the ridge slid east.

By the 3rd week of March, it will more than likely drop negative again which will strongly favor colder than normal temps in the east again.

I CAUTION EVERYONE. THIS DOES NOT MEAN HIGHS IN THE 10s AND 20s WITH BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW IN FEBRUARY!



Notice how the temperatures spike later this week (dates are on the bottom) then drop below normal starting mid week next week on the graph below. See how temperatures fall but only into the 30s.

The bottom line:  Below normal temperatures around the 20th of March means temperatures below 50 degrees.  So highs in the 30s up through the mid 40s would classify. Not arctic cold but NOT SPRING...yet.

Heavy snow for northern Ohio Sunday: SNOW FORECAST HERE

Heavy wet (packing) snow for Sunday across all of northern Ohio. This is a panhandle low-type system which are more common later in the winter when the seasons start their northerly transition to spring. This system is LOADED with moisture.

WINTER STORM WATCH has been DOWNGRADED TO AN ADVISORY for the counties in blue

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY mean selected areas are forecast to receive between 4-6 inches of snow in 12 hours.

While the wording of the advisory areas has changed, the snowfall forecast was lowered only slightly

Current radar loops are below.





Snow will arrive predawn Sunday with the heaviest snow later in the day.

Sunday between 7-9am

Sunday early afternoon

Remember that this system will last a good 12 hours with a few breaks in between.

Heaviest snowfall will be across southern counties. Less snow along the shorelines of  Lake and Ashtabula Counties.

UPDATED SNOWFALL FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY AT 7AM.

FORECAST FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING...

Winter Pattern Unrelenting: More Arctic Cold

Our winter weather outlook back in late October featured a below normal temperature (much colder winter) with above average snowfall.  Given the weak central based El Nino, cool pool in the northern Pacific, warmer west coast and warmer east coast, a stronger southern jet stream phasing in with the polar jet to the north driving big snowfalls from nor'easter type storms in New England shouldn't be surprising.

The areas of the ocean that went into our winter outlook are circled in red. All pointed to colder than normal temperatures in the east.

This is different from last winter when the warm west coast cool of ocean was located in the north central Pacific near the Gulf of Alaska. The central based El Nino (Modoki) hadn't developed yet.

I want to emphasize that these warm and cool pools aren't and weren't the only drivers of our last two winters. But they are significant. Here was our initial best match as we formulated out winter weather outlook (December through February temperatures) back before Halloween.

The overall pattern remains very cold. More cold this weekend--Polar Vortex type cold!

Well below zero across much of the northeast Friday and especially Sunday morning. Even Florida will see lows in the 20s Sunday morning (February 16th) from Jacksonville to Pensacola. The orange crop might take a hit!

Below zero wind chills will reach northern Georgia and the Carolinas with -20 to -30 chills across the Great Lakes.

Here we are in mid February when the cold usually starts to retreat as the first pushes of spring emerge across the deep south. Will the cold air break sooner or later?

The often overlooked Canadian model shows the trough east/cold east continuing through the end of the month. The other models show this too.  However, the trough is retrograding back west a bit. This would shift the cold into the Great Plains by the end of February.

Cold Pattern thru end of February

In droughts, extremely hot conditions will feed off of the extremely dry air above the dry ground. This creates more evaporation which feeds the heat. This chain reaction is very hard to break. In perpetually cold patterns like this, the drivers are very strong and very difficult to break. The cold air can feed the upper air pattern reinforcing the trough in the east and cold/ridge and warmth in the west. In essence, the overall pattern remains stuck.

Good news is that heading into March even during the coldest Marches in Cleveland, 60+ degree warmth shows up by the middle of the month.

That said, the southern branch of the jet becomes very active in March. This could lead to a few more panhandle type storms in March which always have potential for reach Ohio.  Stay tuned.