How Much Do Temperatures Climb After A Below Zero Morning?

Since the snowfall Sunday, temperatures have been in the deep freeze across northern Ohio and surrounding states.  All locations dropped below zero Monday morning and again Tuesday morning. So how much have temperatures rebounded after these -10s and -20s?  Here are the temperature recording graphed out for 15 locations around Ohio since late Sunday. I labeled the coldest readings for the last 2 mornings.

Notice how the temperatures vary from place to place depending on the snow cover, proximity to the lake, sky condition and wind speeds.

How cold has it been in your backyard?

ASHTABULA

BURKE lAKEFRONT AIRPORT

AKRON-CANTON AIRPORT

DOVER

KIRTLAND

LORAIN

MEDINA

MANSFIELD

NORTON

ROME

SANDUSKY

SHAKER HEIGHTS

STRONGSVILLE

TIFFIN

WILLOUGHBY

Arctic Cold Morning Monday - More On The Way

Clear skies, dry air, relatively calm winds and heavy snow cover are the ingredients for arctic cold temperatures.

MANY AREAS LOWER THAN -20

Automated reporting stations as of 6AM.

A FEW NOTES ON THIS MORNING'S COLD:

* OFFICIAL LOW AT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT HOPKINS AIRPORT WAS -12 BETWEEN 6 AND 7AM.  BROKE THE RECORD OF -8 SET IN 1904.

* COLDEST MORNING LOW SINCE 2009

* 2ND COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURE AFTER FEBRUARY 15TH SINCE 1963

* WHAT WAS THE COLDEST TEMP LAST WINTER?:  -11

SOME ADDITIONAL STATS BELOW

Record low across the eastern US fell starting Sunday.

We could see two more nights below zero especially Thursday night into Friday morning.

Winter Pattern Unrelenting: More Arctic Cold

Our winter weather outlook back in late October featured a below normal temperature (much colder winter) with above average snowfall.  Given the weak central based El Nino, cool pool in the northern Pacific, warmer west coast and warmer east coast, a stronger southern jet stream phasing in with the polar jet to the north driving big snowfalls from nor'easter type storms in New England shouldn't be surprising.

The areas of the ocean that went into our winter outlook are circled in red. All pointed to colder than normal temperatures in the east.

This is different from last winter when the warm west coast cool of ocean was located in the north central Pacific near the Gulf of Alaska. The central based El Nino (Modoki) hadn't developed yet.

I want to emphasize that these warm and cool pools aren't and weren't the only drivers of our last two winters. But they are significant. Here was our initial best match as we formulated out winter weather outlook (December through February temperatures) back before Halloween.

The overall pattern remains very cold. More cold this weekend--Polar Vortex type cold!

Well below zero across much of the northeast Friday and especially Sunday morning. Even Florida will see lows in the 20s Sunday morning (February 16th) from Jacksonville to Pensacola. The orange crop might take a hit!

Below zero wind chills will reach northern Georgia and the Carolinas with -20 to -30 chills across the Great Lakes.

Here we are in mid February when the cold usually starts to retreat as the first pushes of spring emerge across the deep south. Will the cold air break sooner or later?

The often overlooked Canadian model shows the trough east/cold east continuing through the end of the month. The other models show this too.  However, the trough is retrograding back west a bit. This would shift the cold into the Great Plains by the end of February.

Cold Pattern thru end of February

In droughts, extremely hot conditions will feed off of the extremely dry air above the dry ground. This creates more evaporation which feeds the heat. This chain reaction is very hard to break. In perpetually cold patterns like this, the drivers are very strong and very difficult to break. The cold air can feed the upper air pattern reinforcing the trough in the east and cold/ridge and warmth in the west. In essence, the overall pattern remains stuck.

Good news is that heading into March even during the coldest Marches in Cleveland, 60+ degree warmth shows up by the middle of the month.

That said, the southern branch of the jet becomes very active in March. This could lead to a few more panhandle type storms in March which always have potential for reach Ohio.  Stay tuned.

Which Decade Had The Most Snow?

So which decade in northern Ohio had the most snow?  Try the 2000s not the 1970s as many believe.

How about daily 6 inch snowfalls per decade?

Superbowl Sunday 8:30PM Update: Road Conditions Worsening

ROAD CONDITIONS ARE WORSE NOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS

* Temperatures have climbed into the lower 30s which caused the snow to transition to sleet then back to snow in many areas especially across southern areas.

* Look at the Ohio valley radar below. The snow shield extends back to Iowa.  As mentioned on Friday and reiterated yesterday and again this morning, this will be a long protracted snow events through early Monday.

* The wind field shown below shows the wind shift in Illinois from the northwest along with colder temperatures. CLICK HERE FOR THE MOST RECENT WIND MAP

Some breaks in the snow before the second more potent area of wet snow moves in around Superbowl Time.  Temperatures will start to fall after midnight into the 15-20 degree range with wind chills between zero and -5 by Monday morning.


SNOWFALL FORECAST IS ON THE BOTTOM OF THIS POST 

Current radar loops are below.






I LIKE THE NWS STORM TOTALS (BY MIDDAY MONDAY)

Current OHIO temperatures HERE

PAST FORECAST GRAPHICS ARE BELOW...

YOU CAN SEE THE CHANGES COMPARING IT TO THE SATURDAY FORECAST

YESTERDAY'S SNOW FORECAST LATE SATURDAY

SATURDAY UPDATE: Significant Snow for Ohio Late Superbowl Sunday

Earlier this week after the Blizzard of 2015 shifted to the east focusing the major snow away from New York City, many meteorologists took to Twitter talking about how too much forecast uncertainty in message breeds inaction. I agree. This is why you will never see me post a snowfall forecast for a potential snow event more than 3 days out.  I might broad-brush the overall setup with generalities but an official snowfall forecast won't happen until we are inside 48 hours. The public wants a concrete forecast. Their risk is personal.  In order to give the best possible snowfall forecast with the least amount of uncertainty, I wait...

This takes us to the Sunday-Monday event.  I posted on Facebook how the the model projections are all over the place. I won't post that image here.  You can see it on my FANPAGE if you are inclined.

This snow system is far different in that it will encompass a huge geographic area with tons of moisture. The duration of snow over northern Ohio will be at least 9-12 hours maybe more.

Anticipate school delays and closing Monday.

SNOWFALL FORECAST IS ON THE BOTTOM OF THIS POST 

Current radar loops are below.




The track is a bit farther north. Here is the snow forecast from the onset of the snow through late morning Monday. The heaviest snow will be from mid afternoon Sunday through midnight.

Post New England Blizzard Thoughts

I will admit that I bounced back and forth on a final NYC snowfall forecast late Sunday/early Monday as the new data was coming in showing the nor'easter farther east.  In the end, the storm developed farther east.  I reluctantly went with higher amounts for NJ and NYC. It didn't pan out although Long Island got hit hard. Was it a bust? Hardly. Were the amounts way off for many locations? Absolutely.  Were the amounts accurate for other locations? Yes.

 

Should snowfall forecasts have been altered?  Probably.  Then again, when you warn 50+ million people, it's very hard to retract a Blizzard Warning that stretches along hundreds of miles of coast line. You live by the sword and die by the sword in the court of public opinion (now social media).

I participated in several twitter discussion with other meteorologists and broadcasters about what we as meteorologists/broadcasters still need to do better in communicating the essential aspects of extreme storms.  The responses were very enlightening.  I know I will take all of this and apply it to my own weather world here in northern Ohio in future weather events. 

Here are several key points, questions and comments from these Twitter conversations. I paraphrased some the statements:

* I have a very difficult time (as a meteorologist) blaming people for focusing on their situation in their town.

*  The science of Meteorology & forecasting are getting so much better but our communication of that information is getting worse & worse IMO.

*   Lets not forget this was like the 1st hurricane of the season, it always gets out of control coverage. No one covers storm ten like storm one.

*   This storm is an excellent case where choice of words in conveying severity is of the utmost importance.

*   People just hear the big numbers and worry just about that!

*   Risk is personal. Mass media is for the masses. Have to find the middle.

*   (response) Here lies the conundrum: Risk is personal. Yet people want personal forecasts


*  Too much emphasis on uncertainty can breed inaction.


*  We need a delicate balance between voicing uncertainty and a declarative forecast for general public

*  "Our NYC forecast, while hardly perfect, was useful"

*  Why no uncertainty cones with these types of systems ?

*   Public can't grasp reality outside of our own weather window

*   Yes but there is so much message competition now and some/a lot operate outside of the Weather/EMA/Gov enterprise...message competition plays a huge role, I think. Even decision makers who we work closely with fall victim to confusion.

*  Some in my business (media) don't care about public good, credibility or long term gain. They get judged on clicks, shares, ratings

*  "There is more risk and nuance in weather forecasts than the public is interested in consuming so it is a challenge to craft a message that gets attention, is not "hype", yet has actionable information.'

If you have anything else to add, let me know.  Comments below.

Major Snow/Blizzard Conditions For New York, Boston Expected

East coast storm continues to develop in Ohio Valley. Current Ohio Valley radar loop



Northeast radar composite



Winter Storm Warnings and Blizzard Warnings are in effect for New York City, Boston and all east coast areas from southern New Jersey to Maine.

The classification of a blizzard has nothing to do snowfall. It has everything to do with WIND and VISIBILITY.

BLIZZARD DEFINITION:

* Sustained wind or frequent gusts to 35 mph or greater for a period of 3 hours or longer
* Falling or blowing snow reducing visibility to less than 1/4 mile.

The exact words from the NWS Office in New York City:

See how the Clipper Snow moving through Ohio and Pennsylvania "bombs" into this major Nor'Easter.

Late Monday surface map

Tuesday Midday

New York City Snowfall forecast per the NWS - LINK HERE

Boston Snowfall Forecast - LINK HERE

New Jersey snowfall forecast - LINK HERE

Widespread Snow Sunday

Abnormaly strong clipper system moves across northern Ohio Sunday. Here are the real-time radar loops showing the snow moving in.



Current OHIO temperatures



Current Ohio Valley radar loop




Initial, broad-brush snowfall forecast. NUMBERS WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE SNOW EVENT! 

New computer projections are shifting the heavier snow across southern counties...more later