Sunday, April 17, 2016

Lake Erie Water Temp vs 1998


The water temperature is still at dangerously cold levels. The lake water temperature lags behind the land temperatures a good 60-80 days in spring. Daytime temperatures in the suburbs can reach mid 60s or 70s yet the lake will stay very cold.  Water temperatures usually don't rise into the 60s until early June. Please, be very careful around the lake over the next two months.

We just came off of a big El Nino winter.  Milder temperatures with below normal snowfall. (we can very close to getting dumped on several times with large snowfalls. Those storms headed into New England). Will the lake water temperatures mirror the spring/summer of 1998, the end of the last big El Nino winter?

This graph show the water temperature in mid April as of this writing on the left.  The right box shows all of the Great Lakes during 1998 (after the last major El Nino).



The water temperature is already slightly above the 25 year average and in line with the April 1998 levels. Assuming we don't have significant runoff from heavy rainfall this spring through mid June along with average to slightly above normal temperatures, water temperatures should stay slightly above normal this summer if your heading to Edgewater or Cedar Point!

Here are the Lake Erie water temperatures in spring of 1998 with 30 year average in parentheses:

May 1:    52  (47)
May 15:  54  (52)
June 1:    64  (57)
June 15:  67  (62)
July 1:     71  (68)
July 15:   77  (72)(
July 21-23:  79 (Highest)  (73 on the 22nd)
August 1:    77  (74)
August 15:   77  (74)
September 1:   77  (73)
September 15:   73 (71)
September 30:   71  (67)

Saturday, April 09, 2016

Estimated Snowfall From NWS Observers - 9AM 4/9/2016


NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1111 AM EDT SAT APR 09 2016

THE FOLLOWING ARE SNOWFALL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST 12/24
HOURS FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION. APPRECIATION
IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...SKYWARN
SPOTTERS AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE
ON OUR HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CLEVELAND

**********************12 HOUR SNOWFALL**********************

LOCATION              12 HOUR     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS
                     SNOWFALL           OF
                     /INCHES/   MEASUREMENT

OHIO

...ASHLAND COUNTY...
   ASHLAND                5.5   720 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER

...ASHTABULA COUNTY...
   PIERPONT 2SE          10.2   724 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   JEFFERSON              9.0   516 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   ORWELL 1E              4.2   814 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   ASHTABULA              2.5   500 AM  4/09  TRAINED SPOTTER

...CRAWFORD COUNTY...
   NEW WASHINGTON 5S      1.8   813 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   GALION                 1.5   756 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER

...CUYAHOGA COUNTY...
   EUCLID                 6.0   807 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   SHAKER HTS             6.0   900 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   CLEVELAND-W SIDE       6.0   755 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   BROADVIEW HTS          5.0   939 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   SOLON                  5.0   914 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   NORTH ROYALTON         4.8   925 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   CLEVELAND-OLD BROOKL   4.5   738 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   GARFIELD HTS           4.3   713 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER

...ERIE COUNTY...
   SANDUSKY               3.8   719 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   HURON                  3.0   940 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER

...GEAUGA COUNTY...
   MONTVILLE              7.5   730 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   CHARDON 2N             6.5   713 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   CHARDON                5.2   743 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   CLARIDON TWP           5.0   841 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   BURTON                 5.0   800 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER

...HANCOCK COUNTY...
   ARLINGTON              1.0   830 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER

...HURON COUNTY...
   NEW LONDON 3NW         6.9   600 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER

...LAKE COUNTY...
   PAINESVILLE           10.0   911 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   MENTOR                 7.5   713 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   PERRY TOWNSHIP         6.0  1057 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   WILLOUGHBY             5.3   700 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER

...LORAIN COUNTY...
   N RIDGEVILLE           5.0   800 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   ELYRIA                 4.9   807 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   SHEFFIELD LAKE         4.5   745 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   LORAIN 3S              4.4   854 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   KIPTON                 2.0   658 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER

...MAHONING COUNTY...
   AUSTINTOWN             1.3   719 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER

...MEDINA COUNTY...
   BRUNSWICK              3.8   700 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   HINCKLEY               3.5   746 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   LODI                   2.0   711 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER

...PORTAGE COUNTY...
   HIRAM                  4.8   801 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   KENT                   3.2   757 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   DIAMOND                3.0   756 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER

...RICHLAND COUNTY...
   MANSFIELD 7NE          2.5   915 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   MANSFIELD/ONTARIO      0.9   745 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER

...SANDUSKY COUNTY...
   FREMONT                8.0   700 AM  4/09  DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
   CLYDE                  7.0   753 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER

...SENECA COUNTY...
   TIFFIN                 4.0   700 AM  4/09  DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

...STARK COUNTY...
   WAYNESBURG             3.2   930 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   EAST CANTON            3.0   800 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   4 NW MASSILLON         2.0   744 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   ALLIANCE               2.0   658 AM  4/09  TRAINED SPOTTER
   MASSILLON/PERRY TWP    1.5   906 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER

...SUMMIT COUNTY...
   STOW                   4.0   903 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   AKRON W SIDE           3.8   624 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   SAGAMORE HILLS         3.7   831 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   TWINSBURG              3.5   849 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   CUYAHOGA FALLS         2.2   816 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   TALLMADGE              2.1   742 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   GREENE                 2.0   658 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   CLINTON                1.0   610 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER

...TRUMBULL COUNTY...
   NEWTON FALLS           5.2   723 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   WARREN                 3.5   650 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   YOUNGSTOWN-WARREN RE   3.0   751 AM  4/09  ASOS

...WAYNE COUNTY...
   DOYLESTOWN             3.0  1038 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   DALTON                 3.0   959 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   KIDRON 1N              1.8   903 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER

...WOOD COUNTY...
   PERRYSBURG             8.0   759 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   6 SE TOLEDO            6.0   700 AM  4/09  DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

PENNSYLVANIA

...CRAWFORD COUNTY...
   MEADVILLE 5W           6.0   915 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER

...ERIE COUNTY...
   AMITY TWP              3.7   740 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   2 NW EDINBORO          2.5   635 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   MILLCREEK TWP          1.2   800 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   FAIRVIEW               1.2   921 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   NORTHEAST 6SW          0.5   717 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER


**********************24 HOUR SNOWFALL**********************

LOCATION              24 HOUR     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS
                     SNOWFALL           OF
                     /INCHES/   MEASUREMENT

OHIO

...ASHLAND COUNTY...
   1 NNE SULLIVAN         4.2   700 AM  4/09  COCORAHS

...CRAWFORD COUNTY...
   1 W GALION             1.5   700 AM  4/09  COCORAHS
   1 NW BUCYRUS           0.5   615 AM  4/09  COCORAHS

...CUYAHOGA COUNTY...
   1 SSW WESTLAKE         5.0   800 AM  4/09  COCORAHS
   2 NNW PARMA            4.0   800 AM  4/09  COCORAHS
   CLEVELAND; OH          3.0   751 AM  4/09  ASOS
   2 SE PARMA             2.4  1159 PM  4/08  COCORAHS
   2 SE BRECKSVILLE       2.0   700 AM  4/09  COCORAHS

Tuesday, April 05, 2016

How Historic Is This April Cold? April Snow?

There is little sign that this cold April will end anytime soon.  The cold air this weekend will be similar to last weekend. In fact, the 850mB (5000 ft) temps over Lake Erie, the key component for determining lake effect snow amounts, might crack the top 5 coldest ever for the month of April since 1950!   Here is the list per the NWS

 Both the GFS and the European show pretty much the same amount of cold as of this writing.

The pattern shows some signs of moderation across the eastern US but not until at least the midway point of the month. Another wave of colder air will follow this weekend's cold by the middle of next week.


The lack of snowfall this winter is almost historic. So far, our season snow total is the lowest since the winter of 1931-32.



April snowfall of at least one inch happens roughly 50% of the time. Here is a look at the percentage of seasonal snowfall in April.  This past weekend's snowfall brings this year's percentage up to 5%. Expect snow chances to climb with each burst of colder air through the middle of the month.







Wednesday, March 30, 2016

March Warmth As A Guide To Summer Temperatures


During each transition season of spring and fall, people incorrectly attempt to predict the next season's warmth or cold by using the current season's temperatures as a guide. The conversations go something like this:

"This warm March means we're in for a super hot summer" or "This cold and rainy fall means we're in for tons of snow this winter." or some other combination like this.

Does this line of thinking work?

I checked the top 10 warmest March years for 8 cities (Cleveland, Cincinnati, Detroit, Indianapolis, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Milwaukee and Buffalo) and ranked them. I found the top 10 warmest years that occurred the most frequently for all of the cities and plotted a summer (June through August) composite (blend) temperature map of these years weighting the more frequent--top 6--warm years higher.

Summer blend - Most Frequent Top 10 Warm March Years - Top 6 Weighted Higher
I next plotted the blend of only the top 6 most frequent years of occurrence that were previously weighted. Notice the warmth become more widespread in this blend.


Neither one of these composites above are blast furnace summers by any stretch.

The problem is that both of these composites mask the individual year extremes. Look at each of the top 5 most frequent years of occurrence?  Each summer varies a great deal. A more detailed look at March 2012 (hottest on record in northern Ohio HERE) 








When we create our summer outlook each year, we perform an in-depth analysis of specific current conditions and combine it with computer projections of these conditions into the future. We combine this with some statistical analysis (similar to the above maps) to come up with a consensus outlook. Its more complicated than saying "its warm or cool now therefore it will be warm or cool next month/next season".

Bottom line, seasonal outlooks are very complex.  Don't be fooled by monthly warmth especially in early spring. It doesn't necessarily mean that an equally warmer than normal summer is ahead.

More on the summer outlook later in April.



Monday, March 14, 2016

Why is PI so important? 2016 Edition

It's one of my favorite days of the year!  A day when geeks of all ages can show off their PI stuff and skills at recitation.  I have PI memorized to 75 digits. Chicks dig it. My wife digs it...so she says. Your kids might have PI day activities planned at school today (Tuesday). I gave my son my PI shirt to wear. Reluctantly, he's going to do it.


I'm sure back in 1737 when Leonard Euler first used the symbol π, he never envisioned the fascination with π that developed since.  There are t-shirts, π plates (yes, I have two), π mugs...and on and on. Novelty websites have just about every π trinket you can think of!

What is PI " π"?

PI is the number that represents the ration of a circle's circumference to its diameter.


As we entered the computer age, the calculation for more digits became a test for computer system efficiency and accuracy. In 2014, scientist Ed Karrel calculated more than 10 QUADRILLION bits (unfortunately not in base 10 units) decimals of PI.  Here is his blog.

The interesting part is that PI is non-repeating and never ending so its very nature is an approximation. Mathematicians have tried to find patterns within π since ancient times. Archaeologists believe that the ancient Egyptians constructed the Great Pyramid of Giza with knowledge of π.  Greek mathematician Archimedes was the first to calculate a range for π  using polygons.

Throughout it's history, π has become a fascination among mathematicians and more recently computer programmers. Welsh mathematician William Jones was the first to use the symbol π to represent the ratio of a circle's circumference to it's diameter in the early 1700s. In the 1940s, a little over 1000 digits of π were known.

As we entered the computer age, the calculation for more digits became a test of computer system efficiency, power and accuracy. In 2014, scientist Ed Karrel calculated more than 10 QUADRILLION hexadecimal digit of PI.  Using hexadecimals make it faster to calculate. Converting hex to base 10 numbers which we all is very difficult when you have these many digits according to Ed.  Here is his blog.

To put the number of digits in Ed Karrel's calculation into perspective, you only need 39 digits of PI to calculate the circumference of the observable universe (assuming it's a sphere) to the accuracy of a width of the inside of an atom!

To put it another way, if you were to recite EVERY digit, it would take you 317,000,000 years to complete. You'd need to start before the dinosaurs were alive in order to finish today!


All of this great if you are a math or computer geek. But why should the rest of us care?

PI is present in every aspect of our lives. PI is used in most calculation in the development of all the world's infrastructure. All communications, CAT scans, MRI machines, genetic research, propulsion systems (space and military aircraft), quantum physics....the list goes on.

Famous scientific discoveries and the math that describes them incorporate PI:

* The calculation for determining the horsepower of your car has PI in it.

* Einstein's famous equations that describe relativity which is now directly applied in
   satellite calibration has PI in it. Here it is in very simple form:



* The math that determines electric force (electricity) includes PI.

*  How about the speed and volume of blood flow inside the first artificial heart? You bet.
    PI is included in that calculation too.

* Want to figure out the position of two planets nearest to the earth? You need PI.




* Radio communications, cellphones, GPS satellites (see Einstein's equation above) computer hard drive/processor technology were both developed using mathematics that incorporates the number "PI".

* Airlines use PI to calculate flying distance around the earth

* Manufacturing uses PI to figure out how much of a substance will fit into a volume
   of circular or cylindrical space


You might not like math. You might not get PI.  Just remember that PI (3.14159...) is integrated into our everyday life unlike any other number. Without it, your daily life would be totally different.


Monday, February 29, 2016

How About the 2017 Oscars?


Here are some potential best picture nominees a year from now.  Keep this list handy.


SILENCE
PASSENGERS
LA LA LAND
WARCRAFT
LONG HALFTIME WALK
HAIL, CAESAR!
ANGRY BIRDS

THE BIRTH OF A NATION
CERTAIN WOMEN
SLEIGHT
INDIGNATION
SWISS ARMY MAN
MONEY MONSTER
SULLY
THE FOUNDER
THE LIGHT BETWEEN OCEANS
STORY OF YOUR LIFE

OTHER MOVIES TO CHECK OUT:


FRANTZ
COMANCHERIA
A HOLOGRAM FROM THE KING
I, DANIEL BLAKE
THE GREAT WALL
WAR MACHINE
SLACK BOY
COLOSSAL
AFTER THE STORM
INSECTS

CHRISTINE
ON THE MILKY ROAD
WAR ON EVERYONE
FREE FIRE
QUEEN OF KATWE
STAY VERTICAL
LOVE AND FRIENDSHIP
MORGAN                                 EVERYBODY WANTS SOME
HHHH                                 ELLE
THE WOODS         DOG EAT DOG

UNA                 THE NICE GUYS
AMERICAN PASTORIAL LO AND BEHOLD REVERIES OF THE CONNECTED WORLD
THE CIRCLE         SALT AND FIRE
WILSON         PERSONAL SHOPPER
TRESPASS AGAINST US THE UNKNOWN GIRL
THE PROMISE        WEIGHTLESS
BOURNE 5                 VOYAGE OF TIME
A MONSTER CALLS JULIETA
A UNITED KINGDOM THE SALESMAN

COMPLETE UNKNOWN PATERSON


Thursday, February 25, 2016

Mindset Behind My Snowfall Forecasts

Sandusky, Ohio snow on February 25, 2016.  Photo courtesy: Bryan Edwards (Twitter)


Snowfall forecasts are very difficult animals both in the meteorology that's used to create them and the public's perception of the numbers you display.

Tuesday morning, I posted a general low resolution hand drawn preliminary forecast for Thursday's snowfall. 

Preliminary Thursday Snow Forecast Issued Tuesday Morning
Yet, many people on social media interpreted this preliminary forecast too literally. Several on Twitter freaked out when they saw Lorain close to the 3-5" range contour.  I told them it probably didn't matter since its--A RANGE!  Sure, Lorain was closer to the potentially heavier snowfall but the overall difference using the range for Lorain was small, probably an inch or two. Yet many on social media see it differently. 

Yesterday morning (Wednesday), I adjusted the area of heavier snow further west but KEPT THE RANGES THE SAME. Once again, people on social media interpreted this as a huge alteration in the snowfall forecast to which I replied, "Use the ranges NOT absolute numbers".  In reality, the overall forecast within the confines of our ranges remained the pretty much the same aside from shifting the heavier amounts west a bit. Yet the perception by the some was that Lorain went from five inches to one inch.  



Most meteorologists on television, the public sector (National Weather Service) and in private industry use snowfall ranges in their forecasts. This works best because it takes into account the variance in movement and intensity of the many individual bands of snowfall within snowfall systems. The problem for the meteorologist is that most people want A SPECIFIC SNOWFALL NUMBER for their backyard.  Yet many people see a snowfall forecast during the morning newscast and believe that this holds for the entire day. Nothing is further from the truth. These forecasts are not one-and-done. They evolve throughout the day as the event unfolds. Forecasts change as the conditions change. People see individual snowfall amounts on their phone apps and believe these over human derived forecasts. They want absolute specifics yet more often than not, one snowfall amount number for any location will not work.

For example, here was my official snowfall forecast issued Thursday morning at 4am for the entire day using ranges:



One specific (WRF 4km) high resolution computer model early in the morning cranked out these amounts for Thursday's snowfall.  While these were in line with our official snowfall forecast above, people fixated on some of the individual numbers and were confused. 



How do we combat this confusion on social and broadcast media? Good question. 

My soft policy is that I rarely post computer model snowfall output unless we are inside 24 hours before a snowfall event. If my intention is to highlight the general outlook for the week ahead, I will post snowfall accumulations without numbers.  A quality controlled "hand drawn" map is another option. My ultimate goal is to present information that describes the weather without creating confusion.  

Situations like this reminds me of the psychology behind the weather forecast. Most people want exactness in there forecasts. Remember that we are all hard wired to simplify uncertainty. So when a snowfall forecast range is posted on a map, people immediately find a number within that range that best fits. I'd like to say that I make a forecast with a cold, rational eye but I don't. I take into account how people with react to EACH WORD knowing that many people with perceive selective elements to fit their location.  I learned that real quick after my first major lake effect event twenty years ago.

If I could make a poster with bullet points for meteorologists, it would list these five at the top

*  Public perception is very powerful

*  We need to be better communicators of information

*  Choice of words is of the utmost importance in conveying severity of the weather

*  Risk is personal (public).  Mass media is for the masses. Yet people want personal forecasts. Huge conundrum.

*  Too much emphasis on uncertainty breeds confusion, inaction and ultimately apathy when the next snow or weather event or importance happens. This is basic psychology that's been well documented over the years. We need to find a delicate balance between voicing uncertainty and sticking to a forecast.




Wednesday, February 10, 2016

Tuesday, February 02, 2016

Why Do We Believe in Ground Hog Predictions?



Ground Hog Day is a neat little holiday for many folks around the country who like to place the slothish behavior of a rodent on a pedestal. He's cute. Its old fashioned. Its tradition. There are top hats. Who wouldn't like to be a part of that?

So why do we like Ground Hog Day so much?

Our brains are hard-wired for simple stories. Go back to our earliest ancestors. Information was passed through stories.

We desire a good weather story (a feel-good forecast with some folklore) versus something data/science driven.  Why is this? A data driven paragraph by itself only activates the language processing centers (Broca’s area and Wernicke’s area ) of the brain. Brain scans show that if you incorporate stories with descriptive metaphors, it will active multiple sensory parts of the brain like the Motor Cortex (body movements) and the Insular Cortex (emotional region) at once. In other words, descriptive story with less data make our brains work harder by relating the story to our our own personal experiences! Given that personal stories make up more than 65% of our conversations, this makes perfect sense.

What does this have to do with weather forecasts?

Typically, our brains work much better with a theme or a story that has a beginning, middle and an end. In this daily forecast example, we visualize a line of showers that moves in at a specific time; it stays for a select amount of time and then moves out without fanfare. Our brains involuntarily take this weather story and creates a visualization by melding our personal experiences with the information. The forecast instantly becomes relatable!. It becomes personal!  Unfortunately, weather events rarely behave in this manner.

For our minds to grasp weather probabilities, we need to be able to handle multiple possible outcomes at once. Weather has many, many outcomes over a large area over a significant period of time. Change the initial weather conditions (humidity, wind flow, frontal position, upper level energy, etc) and you create more uncertainty. Factor in time and the probability becomes significantly higher. Unfortunately, when meteorologists attempt to use a data driven narrative to explain why something did or didn't happen, the emotional centers of the brain described above are not activated. The emotional centers of our brain are not activated when presented with probabilities. Our brains simplify the probability using a story (narrative) that we can relate to. If not, there is no nice and tidy story here for our brains to trigger an emotional response.  Simply put, we feel uneasy.

Instead, we favor more simplified stories like the folklore of the Ground Hog or the Old Farmers Almanac.  Without asking your brain subconsciously shrugs off probability and uncertainty narratives and replaces them with predictions and stories from the Old Farmers' Almanac or Punxsutawney Phil.

So why do we believe Ground Hog predictions? It makes us feel good.